relying on stats... folded Queens preflop - $50 FTP

[kurto]

Slightly laggy guy - full stack in middle position
Rock on the button with $30 stack.
I'm in the small blind with $50.

I have QQ in the SB and I'm excited.

1 fold then SLAG at UTG+1 raises to $1.50 (YES)

fold to Button who is 12vpip and 3% pfr after about 150-200 hands who 3 BETS to $6.

Stack sizes don't merit playing for set value.

Any raise and I have to call a push.

I was between push and fold and I kept looking at his 3 percent PFR.... If he only raises 3%, his three bet is even tighter.

I folded.

It feels weak but I can't picture what I'm beating that a guy that tight 3 bets?

[gumpzilla]

I think this is fine. JJ will probably fold to a shove, if it's in his range, leaving you up against KK+, AK. Not exactly missing out on boatloads of equity here.

[poker_n00b]

[ QUOTE ]
Slightly laggy guy - full stack in middle position
Rock on the button with $30 stack.
I'm in the small blind with $50.

I have QQ in the SB and I'm excited.

1 fold then SLAG at UTG+1 raises to $1.50 (YES)

fold to Button who is 12vpip and 3% pfr after about 150-200 hands who 3 BETS to $6.

Stack sizes don't merit playing for set value.

Any raise and I have to call a push.

I was between push and fold and I kept looking at his 3 percent PFR.... If he only raises 3%, his three bet is even tighter.

I folded.

It feels weak but I can't picture what I'm beating that a guy that tight 3 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call.

I would play cautiously on the flop by check calling rock's cbet with my overpair and folding turn if he keeps betting.

I hate reraising here but it might have same EV as calling. I am not folding. 3% is 99+ and AQs+.

[jessyj07]

the fold is fine. he only has half a stack so implied odds are not there since you'd only really play for implied value here.

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Slightly laggy guy - full stack in middle position
Rock on the button with $30 stack.
I'm in the small blind with $50.

I have QQ in the SB and I'm excited.

1 fold then SLAG at UTG+1 raises to $1.50 (YES)

fold to Button who is 12vpip and 3% pfr after about 150-200 hands who 3 BETS to $6.

Stack sizes don't merit playing for set value.

Any raise and I have to call a push.

I was between push and fold and I kept looking at his 3 percent PFR.... If he only raises 3%, his three bet is even tighter.

I folded.

It feels weak but I can't picture what I'm beating that a guy that tight 3 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call.

I would play cautiously on the flop by check calling rock's cbet with my overpair and folding turn if he keeps betting.

I hate reraising here but it might have same EV as calling. I am not folding. 3% is 99+ and AQs+.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah but 3% is his opening range, just imagine how tight his 3betting range is. However, I'd probably still call and try to evaluate his stength on the flop. If A or K flops then completely done with the hand. BTW I don't hate the fold pre, would probably fold if I was playing lots of tables and didn't have a feel for his post flop play.

[gumpzilla]

Also, I could be wrong, but I think a lot of people would pick AKo over TT-99 in that spot, leaving you with the range of JJ+, AK for your 3%. Certainly people will be more likely to call a shove with AKo than TT-99.

[china_hard]

[ QUOTE ]
Button who is 12vpip and 3% pfr after about 150-200 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not great at maths stuff like this, but how accurate can we take these stats to be?

I know for sure that sometimes I have drastically different stats on seperate tables playing a similar game after this many hands.

Good fold though.

[poker_n00b]

AA or KK comes every approx. every 110 hands. In the long run. You can go without it for several 100s of hands. So the guy might be raising more hands than it seems.

Moreover he might be noticing the SLAG player as well and acting on it. Though the probability of it is small.

In hindsight, folding might be OK play.

[vixticator]

3-bets from these super nits is almost always AA/KK. Obviously they raise much looser, their 3-bets have QQ crushed though.

[justhetip]

Great fold, don't feel sick about it.