Live 6/12: Straight Draw on the button

[TheCount212]

Raising the flop is fine, as you're building the pot if you hit your 8 outer and (hopefully) buy a free card. The fact that it's a rainbow board keeps the downside risk of hitting and losing to a minimum, unless of course someone's playing a BDFD, 75s, or, heaven forbid, a 5 comes up and someone holds 87s. So your potential reward seems to outweigh your risk here. You'd be horribly unlucky to hit and lose.

The difficulty comes in checking through the turn, which saves a bet but exposes your draw to villains that are paying attention. But of course if they're not paying attention they'll bet out at the river even if you hit.

[DeuceKicker]

FCP has a decent chance of paying off because your hand is well disguised. If you do it with a flush draw, and the flush hits on the river, you might not get paid off because many of your opponents will realize what you were doing. But who's going to put you on 53?

There are many cards on the turn that might look scary enough that you could check behind and not be turning your hand up.

[TheCount212]

True enough... in the abstract it's hard to put someone on 53, but don't forget about 75 as well. I'm just saying that when someone bumps the flop and checks behind on a turn card that seems a blank, you pretty much have to put them on a draw.

[gobbledygeek]

I've said this before, but is anyone here really concerned about "turning their hand face up" in small stakes poker? You'll probably get paid off every single time by villains saying "yup, that's what I thought you had"; and frankly, with the pot sometimes being large enough at this point, villains are probably correct in paying off.

[mongidig]

If the flop bettor is aggressive you may just want to call. If he reraises and shuts everyone else out of the pot that is bad.

At these levels I would raise the flop. It is less likely you will get reraised and you build the pot which will encourage the other players do draw dead and pay you off.

[mwette]

I would raise the flop. You are better
than 3:1 to make your straight and you
have three callers. Bet for value.

[elindauer]

Excellent spot for a free card raise. You're main concern is that the SB will 3-bet and kill your implied odds. Against a player who you can peg so easily with his initial bet, you're in great shape. Raise.

good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

This is reasonable sounding logic, but I don't think it holds up under close scrutiny. The deceptive part is understanding that the extra bets you get when you catch don't quite make up for the extra bets you lose when you (usually) miss.

It's probably not a bad play though... I'd guesstimate that you are betting 1SB at 3.5:1 that you will make your straight on the turn.

-eric

[danspartan]

The raise also controls the action on the turn. If one of the callers improves to two pair/trips then we could face two cold on turn.
We have equity
The callers generally miss and fold the flop so we get 1.5BB on raising the flop for sure and likely 1BB on the turn (prob on average its even: 1 better and 0.5 callers).
We get control of the action on the turn
Raise

[Tugg]

[ QUOTE ]
The raise also controls the action on the turn. If one of the callers improves to two pair/trips then we could face two cold on turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this thinking, if someone had a middle pocket pair and hit their 2 outer or was slow playing a set or improves to 2 pair. They very well may check to you intending to raise,and you can take your free card instead of facing 2 cold.