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#13
10-12-2006, 11:34 PM
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Re: Week 7 CFB Notions (and Season Recap)
[ QUOTE ]
2 units - Colorado St./Air Force u47 -105 1 unit - Colorado St. +7 -119 [/ QUOTE ] Two winners, but two wrong sides... So much for putting an end to my poor handicapping... ML4L 
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#14
10-12-2006, 11:41 PM
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Re: Week 7 CFB Notions (and Season Recap)
What makes you think you were on the wrong side with CSU? The total yardage was almost the same between the two teams, as were the turnovers, and the penalties favored Air Force. It looks like taking the points was the right decision.
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#15
10-13-2006, 12:13 AM
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Re: Week 7 CFB Notions (and Season Recap)
[ QUOTE ]
What makes you think you were on the wrong side with CSU? The total yardage was almost the same between the two teams, as were the turnovers, and the penalties favored Air Force. It looks like taking the points was the right decision. [/ QUOTE ] Well, it's always really tough to say for certain when you don't get to watch the actual game, but my take before the game was this... Colorado St.'s run game is iffy since Bell went out for the year, so in order to be successful, they have to be able to pass the ball (and their pass offense has been very efficient to this point). Air Force's pass defense is terrible; one of the worst in the country, IMO. So, I viewed it as a situation where Colorado St.'s otherwise-mediocre offense would overperform relative to expectations (but still not put up a ton of yards/points). On the other side of the ball, I didn't think that Air Force would have a ton of success running the football. Colorado St.'s run defense had played well (albeit against mediocre competition), and again, I reasoned that this is essentially the same Air Force team who had such a terrible year last year. I thought that there was a chance that Air Force had over-performed to this point and would come back to reality tonight. So, my feeling was that the above fact-pattern translated into Colorado St. and the under. As far as how the actual game played out, I was kinda right about Colorado St. on offense, but they put up a few more yards than I expected, kinda making me feel as though my under play was a little iffy (but my Colorado St. side was OK). But, then, looking at Air Force on offense, I was COMPLETELY wrong. Air Force punted once all night and could have easily scored 35 themselves. Were it not for a goal-line fumble and/or a missed field goal, I would have lost one or both of my bets... The real clincher is that, as I was watching the GameCast, I realized that this is the same Colorado St. rush defense that gave up 51 points to Navy in their bowl game last year. I mean, [censored], could I be any dumber? I guess that I should interject that I look at wrong/right sides a lot differently than some other cappers. I don't worry as much about what actually happened as what I think would happen if the two teams played a rematch... At least I was right on the line moves. Played the under early and got the best number, and waited until late in the week for my Colorado St. side, and got the best number there (unless there was late movement that I didn't know about it; I was at work...). ML4L
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#16
10-13-2006, 12:44 AM
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Re: Week 7 CFB Notions (and Season Recap)
I'm surprised you aren't on Arizona @ Stanford. Does your ranking system not have Arizona as a big favorite like Sagarin and Dunkel?
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#19
10-17-2006, 10:05 PM
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Re: Week 7 CFB Notions (and Season Recap)
[ QUOTE ]
your PMs are full [/ QUOTE ] Should be fixed. Thanks for bumping a thread full of my [censored] picks... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Mike
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