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Old 10-28-2007, 03:13 AM
raze raze is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,561
Default Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?

Being 35% chance to win in a 3-way pot means you're putting your money in with about a neutral-expectation (33% would be neutral, 35% means you have a tiny advantage here as a best-case scenario.

Let me show you a worst-case scenario:

Hand 0: 04.393% 03.10% 01.29% 6048 2520.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 58.564% 57.27% 01.29% 111708 2520.00 { 54o }
Hand 2: 37.043% 35.75% 01.29% 69732 2520.00 { 88 }

AA is only going to win 4% of the time if we happen to be up against a set and a made straight.

Also note that we are so far behind here, the guy with 88 is in a profitable spot (37% chance to win the pot, having put in only 33% of the money 3-handed). He is in a good spot, because of our dead money, even against a made straight.
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