Premium hand strategy question

[fishyak]

Here is a fairly common situation. Let's assume you hold AJ+ (no pair) in a late position. Of course you raise PF and you have 3 chasers ahead of you and one behind you.

The flop has one piece of Broadway in it, but not yours. A chaser on your right bets into you, testing for AK or premium pair.

Are there any general rules we should apply in this common low stakes scenario? Or should we be mixing up our responses between calling down, folding, raising and free card? It seems that I encounter this kind of situation literally every time I play 4/8.

This post is an effort to take Frond's recent QTs post and turn it into a broader strategy discussion for this common situation.

[jesse8888]

I think there is a huge difference between holding AK on a flop of Q27r and holding AJ on a flop of K97 with a two flush. That being said, I'll now try to be helpful.

The first thing I always ask myself is this: "Will a raise thin the field"? If the limpers/chasers will pay two bets with almost any two cards (as you'll see often in 4/8), then raising is really only going to build a huge pot that you're almost surely currently losing.

[Hyperrrprank]

Here's my thoughts...

Tough, tight players likely to 3-bet top pair bets - fold or possibly peel (depending on bd draws and exact pot odds)

Weak tight players left who haven't come in yet, and/or a weak bettor likely to give a free card - raise

Loose callers, multiple people already in, free card unlikely - peel for overcard/bd draw odds

These are VERY general, sometimes I switch plays if I've been doing the same thing with the same people for too long.

[Broon]

standard situation from SSHE, overcards are a weak draw, and they play better against a semi connected board without too many big draws and fewer players. if the board is too ragged you can assume theyve hit and arent betting a draw, you should probably fold unless your overcard outs justify a call from the pot odds.

[Xhad]

5-handed you're really not missing anything if you just fold here.

[fishyak]

We've had an opening round of responses that make some interesting points. I'll try to clarify and take it further. I feel this is an important subject because:

SSHE admits overcards are tough to play AND these hands are very important to our play because we've committed twice the standard "fee" PF. How we play and hit these hands may very well decide whether our session is + or -.

Key points:

A) The cards

1) OVERCARD vs OVERCARDS. The AJo with a Q on the board IS much LESS playable than AKo with a J high board. Live, I may not always pay attention to this valuable distinction.
2) Connected flop vs unconnected flop: Connected, we may be facing a draw betting into us. Unconnected and bet into should be MORE of a warning sign. Interesting. Again, I am probably more prone to be concerned about the connected board.

B) Position,

Not many comments about position.

C) The other players.

Live, you have to follow your reads. You also have the chance to raise flops for free turns or rivers, risking a 3 bet.

Given a large number of other players, (3,4,5?) the odds become very good that we are behind. We need to be better at asking what are the odds of hitting our outs AND will one pair be enough to win? The advice to drop out of these hands earlier, and often appears sound.

Anyone else want to try and fine tune these further?

[jesse8888]

As far as position goes, you specified originally that we're in a 3 to 5 handed pot and that this bet has come from our right. If we're opening it up to other positions, I'd say that if we can close the action in a 10 to 14 small bet pot for one bet, it's probably always right to peel.

[fishyak]

But Jesse, now you and Xhad are in conflict. Any limitations on your statement of "it's probably always right to peel"?

[jesse8888]

Xhad's comment was based on your original post, with the bet coming from your right. With 3 or 4 players left to act behind you, you're probably not missing anything by folding. If, however, you're closing the action as I stipulated, then I think peeling is almost certainly correct.

So to answer the question....if the bet comes from your right, try to peel less.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Xhad's comment was based on your original post, with the bet coming from your right. With 3 or 4 players left to act behind you, you're probably not missing anything by folding. If, however, you're closing the action as I stipulated, then I think peeling is almost certainly correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Like if you have AJo and the flop is like Q75 and someone donks into you, you have one guy behind you who hasn't reacted to the flop yet, 2 guys that could have just been checking to the raiser so they could c/r, and one guy who might have a weak hand or might have Qx and be correctly afraid of a checkthrough or might have a strong hand and just not remember that you were the pfr...so the best case scenario on a call is you barely get correct odds to peel and worst case is you pay 2SB drawing dead (you'll probably never pay 3 because if that kind of flop goes to 3bets your ace is no good anyway) If on the other hand you're getting like 14-15:1 closing the action that's a different story especially if you have any kind of backdoor draws or any chance of a turn checkthrough.