ICM problem

[runhot]

utg shoving 25%
button calling 7%
SB calling 40%
BB calling 6%


100/200 Blinds, 8 Players

UTG: 449
UTG+1: 705
MP1: 1,258
MP2: 986
Hero (CO): 5,525
BTN: 1,599
SB: 422
BB: 2,556

Pre-Flop: (300) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
<font color="red">UTG raises to 449 and is All-In</font>, 3 folds

HERO ??

[JacJacAtk]

Too much math, but...

UTG shoves more than 25% in this situation, and you're correct to call his shove even if he is as tight as 25%.

SB should probably call more than 40%, too, and if you re-shove (as you likely should) button and BB shouldn't be calling as wide as you posit.

Given that you'd be profitable to open-shove versus the ranges you suggest, though, shoving should still be good. I haven't tried to figure out all the permutations of what you gain by folding and letting one or more of these guys bust on this hand but in the case of BB busting UTG it doesn't look like it would be enough versus just taking the +$EV from shoving over UTG.