Marginal Bringin Defense - 10/20 Stud 8

[LearnedfromTV]

The thing I'm trying to figure out about peeling is what percentage of his range he folds on fifth when I catch like a 3; he bets and I raise. the obvious thing I'm representing is a four low and potential straight draw, maybe a slightly weaker (depending on his hand) pair and 3 low (which I actually have), or some kind of slowplayed monster. If he's unpaired with 3 to a low, or worse, which is a significant portion of his hands, how can he continue? Literally, how does he play the hand if he continues? Call, check sixth? With basically no pair no draw, or weak pair/weak draw, or no pair/ok draw. Threebet bluff?

I don't know how many of you have read stoxtrader's limit holdem book. Probably a lot of you. There's a section where he does a full hand range analysis of semibluffing raising with a medium draw on the turn. the dynamic of the games he's dealing with is similar to how these type of Stud 8 hands play; i.e. the third street raise and fourth street bet are basically automatic (preflop and flop), and the fifth street follow through (turn bet) is coming from a very wide range, probably like 70%+. In these spots, there's a lot of air left, and we don't need that many folds to make raising profitable, especially when we have enough equity to be fine with him calling and checking to us on most sixths. We only really hate a reraise, which takes a lot of balls from most of his range.

[LearnedfromTV]

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I ran these hands as your hand against Ah with 2 random cards

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Where? (If you don't mind)

[SuitedBaby]

I do think without further information other than the lame stuff available it is clear this is a raise (raise the complete) on 3rd for many reasons. I wish we could clear it up perfectly but look at the happily meaningless dead cards here, it is not in dispute if you put him on a steal.

Patty

[2461Badugi]

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It's also odd to me that stud is the one forum on 2+2 where someone can post 'well, you're getting 19:7 as a 55% favorite', the next post starts off 'you don't give up that much by folding', and no one bats an eye. I don't say this because I think I'm a better stud player than most people here - hell, I admit I suck at stud - but I do know something about poker as a whole, and that cannot be right/cannot be a good attitude to have as a forum.

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I'd love to find a profitable line in this spot. Much like you, I think it ought to exist. But it's not evident to me. The closest I can come is raising fifth a lot, which does work pretty well a lot of the time. Mostly, though, I just fold, because most players won't steal with any two cards down in Stud/8.

I suspect it may just be too easy for villain to always know where he is in the hand.

[Micturition Man]

People have this hand dead wrong.

You should reraise on 3rd street. As played you should raise 4th and call 5th.

One caveat though I didn't read your opponent description. I'm just assuming he's normal.

Villain should be completing 100% on 3rd, and we are way ahead of his distribution. Not only that but our hand is actually not that bad against AAx. (It's bad, but not crushed the way KK would be.)

Folding 3rd would be obscene.


Edit: After checking the numbers it's not fair to say we are 'way' ahead on 3rd. Still we are ahead and I stand by my advice.

[Micturition Man]

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The ante is low, so you don't give up all that much by folding third. I call, but you need to catch good in order to continue, in my opinion. I give it up on fourth.

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This cannot be right. I'm not sure how wrong it is, because I'm unfamiliar with exact stud8 equity, but it mathematically cannot be right to fold after bricking once, *especially* when the oher guy also bricks. If having 55% equity on third is correct, folding fourth is an atrocity.

It's also odd to me that stud is the one forum on 2+2 where someone can post 'well, you're getting 19:7 as a 55% favorite', the next post starts off 'you don't give up that much by folding', and no one bats an eye. I don't say this because I think I'm a better stud player than most people here - hell, I admit I suck at stud - but I do know something about poker as a whole, and that cannot be right/cannot be a good attitude to have as a forum.

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You have a very good point here and I have noticed this as well, particularly with respect to a certain person who likes to post advice on razz.

The problem with this forum is that there are very few pros who play stud games, so there is much less rigor in the level of common wisdom.

People just post what they think is right and if it's wrong, it's wrong, oh well who cares.

In the HSNL or the LHE forum by contrast many of the posters have a direct financial interest in correctly solving strategy problems, so they don't just leave wrong answers lying there.

Or such is my opinion anyway. It's really not a big deal, but it is true that the advice is less reliable here than in some of the other forums.

[SeventhStreetAce]

What r u talking about? you never made a re-steal play....

It looks like you check-called your money away, based on the wrong presumptions.

Yes, I do believe your hand plays very badly in this spot and at 10/20.

Ok, lets give you some credit for the math in your decision on third, but the logic of the rest of the hand and the way you played it are terrible in my opinion. What a waste of money. Hope you won it back.

[SuitedBaby]

Excuse me.

Patty

[Micturition Man]

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Excuse me.

Patty

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I didn't say everyone [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Actually as usual I just quickly skimmed comments before replying. Enough to see people advocating folds on 4th or even 3rd.

[SweetLuckyMe]

Unless villian is a rock, that's not a marginal bringin defense, that's re-raise material as far as I'm concerned... and you keep the lead until you meet some resistance.