The OTHER worst fold in Razz history

[Praxising]

I look at this and I am embarrassed to post it - but - didja ever just have a feeling?

Razz ($1/$2), Ante $0.20, Bring-In $0.25 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (4.40 SB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.20 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (3.20 BB - $6.40)

[RustyBrooks]

Well, I don't automatically give Seat 7 credit for a 6 there, or even a 7, given that he limped 3rd and called your completion. Really that's got to be read dependent though - a LOT of players, for whatever reason, limp all kinds of hands and have raising numbers as low as 2-5% on 3rd. Still, if he has a 3-card 5 on 3rd I expect he'd complete unless he was looking to trap. If he had a 3-card 7, he needed to have 753, 754 or 743 in order to have a 7 here. Anything else and he either has paired or has a made hand worse than a 7. Honestly I'd expect him to either have paired or have an 86 here.

If he has paired, a call is in order on 5th, I think that's clear.

If he has an 86, your outs are: 3 aces, 3 fours, 4 fives for a total of 10 outs. There are 38 unknown cards so your odds of drawing a 7 or better are 2.8:1 in one card, and your immediate odds are 4.2:1 so that implies a call is OK (if he has 86)

If he has a 7 you are drawing pretty slim since a 765 might not be good and even a 764 might not be good. If he has a 7 then 763 is good but that means you have somewhere between 3 and 10 outs, heavily weighted towards 3. Worse than 10:1 odds if you need the 763, something like 5:1 if 764

If he has a 6 you're screwed but that means he has to have exactly 34 35 or 45 in the hole.

Purely percentage wise he needs to have an 86 or worse the majority of the time to make a call good.

[adanthar]

he has, like, somewhere between a 76 and a J6

[RustyBrooks]

Oh, it's much wider than that. He could have 2 pair by now.

I'm a lot less inclined to fold here than if, say, I was drawing to an 8 and my opponent showed 3 cards 7 and under or if I was drawing to a 9 and he showed 3 cards 8 and under, etc, etc. The lower the best hand you're drawing to is, the less likely that he has a hand that beats you, even if the 3 cards you can see indicate a made hand better than what you're drawing to. In this case there just aren't too many hole cards you're afraid of, so I call.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I don't automatically give Seat 7 credit for a 6 there, or even a 7, given that he limped 3rd and called your completion. Really that's got to be read dependent though - a LOT of players, for whatever reason, limp all kinds of hands and have raising numbers as low as 2-5% on 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this player is female by the screen name - and I never saw her complete or raise 3rd no matter what she had. Or much of anywhere unless she had a wheel. But mostly when the 6 hit I had the sudden thought "She just made a 64." I couldn't shake the thought and I folded -

I presume in most cases most players would call here. I think I usually would. But, would anyone else fold here?

[RustyBrooks]

One thing you have to like about 5th is that you drew a K. It's a mixed blessing obviously but at least you'll have position the rest of the hand unless villain pairs.

[blumpkin]

this is the easiest fold ever. consistently calling here is a huge leak.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
this is the easiest fold ever. consistently calling here is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

it definitely would be if the guy hadn't limp/called...

[betgo]

Villain limp/called, so you probably have the best draw. If he did limp/call with wheel cards, he could have paired. It's not the worst fold, but I would call.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
this is the easiest fold ever. consistently calling here is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? You aren't pulling my ancient leg, are you? Seemed wimpariffic, to me.



prax<----off to reread SoP