river checkraise (for value)

[soah]

This hand is a week old and I don't remember stack sizes too well anymore and some details might be a bit off.

Live 5/10

Folded to a wealthy fish in the CO who limps which means he probably has something that's not very good. Button raises to $50 and SB folds. I call in BB with 66.

Button is a WSOP bracelet winner from a few years ago which he has mentioned a few times at the table. He seems to play well. He's playing a generic TAG style, nothing fancy. The table is pretty weak overall and me and him are almost surely the best two players at the table, so I haven't been looking to get involved in pots against him. We've only played a couple hands together, which are as follows:

Once he raised UTG and I reraised and he folded after only a few seconds of thought when the action got back to him.

Another time he raised from early-mid and I called. The flop was like QJx or something and he check-called (was hu to the flop). Turn bricked and I checked behind. River bricked and he checked and folded to my bet of about half pot.

He's been aggressive at stealing my blinds when it's folded to him but this is over a small sample size because it's not folded to him in lp too often... I folded to each of those raises.

So back to this hand... fish openlimps in CO, button raises to $50, sb folds, I call with 66, fish calls.

The flop is 643 with a flush draw. Often I lead here but this wasn't a spot where I wanted to put the fish in the middle, and I think button can get away if I bet/reraise due to our depth and because I haven't given him a reason to believe that I'd do this on a draw, and he's not gonna donk off his stack without putting me on a hand. So I check, fish checks, button bets $100, I call here to give the fish a chance to do something stupid, but after hemming and hawing and talking about how he should raise, he ends up folding. Turn is an offsuit 8 and I lead out for $250. Button calls it without too much delay. At this point I'm pretty sure he has an overpair. River is a T, still no flush possible. I don't remember exact stack sizes but for this discussion we'll say I have $1200, and he covers.

I check?

Yay or nay?

[soah]

Also, just for fun, how do you like this move with a busted draw? 55 or flush draw or whatever

[jkkkk]

I like it and surprisingly, I don't like it as a bluff w/ 55 or whatever.

[Teh1337zor]

eh I would just overbet the pot because I dont see him calling a c/r with his overpair

[psuasskicker]

I'd be really concerned he checks behind with an overpair. I think your hand looks a lot like a draw (which is why I wouldn't like the move with a draw) which worries me he'd check on the back end. Does he think you'd call with a hand that loses to AA? 99?

I like leading 1/2 to 3/4 pot here hoping he thinks it's a busted draw.

- C -

[RiverHebrew2]

I like this river c/rai I'm pretty sure he'll bet, and he'll probably be committed to calling AI. I actually rele like your line because it's really tricky and looks like some sort of draw. NH.

[psuasskicker]

If his line looks like a draw, why would villain bet the river?

- C -

[FionnMac]

[ QUOTE ]
If his line looks like a draw, why would villain bet the river?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

to induce a c/r? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[soah]

I'm going to refer to the flush draw as spades. Even though I don't think that's what it was. But just so we have something to call it.

My line here up to checking the river would be consistent with hands like JsTs or 9s8s. There are definitely similar types of spots where I could checkcall the river with JsTs if I have some reason to think my opponent missed something or is valuebetting worse. This is not one of those spots but my opponent could think that it is.

Also, the way I played the hand doesn't show much strength at all so he almost has to think his hand is good... so it's like a total freeroll for him to bet and hope I make a bad call, yeah?

[soah]

a few further thoughts:

if my opponent has me beat on the turn he almost has to raise, I mean I either have a big hand or I have a draw, either way calling is bad, and he's not stupid. There is some tiny chance he might just call with 88 if he's scared I have the straight, but he'd have to think about it, and he didn't think before calling, so really I'm sure I'm good going into the river. So really all I'm concerned about on the river is TT.

If I bet the river for a reasonable amount I expect to get raised almost never. He never raises with a worse hand and if he has TT he still might only call, fearing that I either flopped the straight or backdoored it with 9s7s and I either have a big hand here or a bluff.

How much he will call on the river and how often he will call it is unknown.

If I check the river, how much and how often he will bet is unknown.

How often he will bet and call a raise is also unknown, although I would have to think it's pretty small unless I got screwed by TT. Although maybe once in a blue moon he folds TT figuring I must have a straight. =P

In order to pick the best move I have to assign numbers to all of those unknowns. I'm biased because I know results, which is why I posted this.