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Old 12-01-2007, 01:59 PM
wacki wacki is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: reading 1K climate journals
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Default Re: Of Climate Models and Hurricane Predictions

Well current glacial trends on the other side of the planet show that they are going to face some really tough water problems. Glacier trends show that with overwhelming evidence. The ocean is showing signs that it has saturated.

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/0702737104v1

The Co2 Growth rate in the atmosphere is almost triple of what it was in the 1990s. Ocean acidification could occur sooner than expected as well. A lot of things have developed that I'm not sure have been included in the AR4.

This is the 2001 IPCC projection:
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/graphics...arge/05.02.jpg

AR4's (more accurate) projections are here:
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/graphics...t/figure10.ppt

Basically the projections are showing that temps will be a little bit under 2 degrees C in 50 years (there is overlap above 2 degrees C depending on emissions scenario). However recent developments such as ocean saturation has been less than comforting. Good new is that the planet has a lot of inertia so 30-50 years out is considered rather easy to ppredict as CO2 doesn't matter too much. Albedo another story as ice melt is not looking fun either. Things may have changed though I simply don't know. At this moment I'm willing to say 2 degrees C is unlikely in 50 years but again things may change.
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