50NL AK hits top pair - funky reraise from villain on river

dlorc · #1 11-30-2007, 07:41 PM

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($53.11)
BB ($28.55)
UTG ($23.92)
MP ($16.80)
CO ($47.40)
Button ($11.44)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $1.25.

Flop: ($4.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2.5, CO calls $2.50.

Turn: ($9.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $4.5, CO calls $4.50.

River: ($18.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $20 Hero ???

The pot is now $48.25 so we are getting 4.825-1 to call here.

Villain is 31.5/4.35/0.41, his AF is a little misleading because his river AF is 6 but his aggression on all other streets is very low. He has 22% WTSD and I have ~100 hands on him so its not like river aggression isnt abnormal from him.

What range do we assign him on the river, and given the pot size do we call, reraise or fold on the river?

I think this is a genuinely tough spot in a session I recorded earlier, I believed he was on a weaker king on the flop/turn so I was giving him KJ, K9,K8. - QQ is just about possible also and perhaps AQ..

In hindsight after writing this I feel I have the correct answer but I think the discussion might be interesting anyway.

Cueballmania · #2 11-30-2007, 10:45 PM

I raise more on pre-flop, bet more on the turn and usually check/call the river OOP. As played, you call because you're getting huge odds.

vixticator · #3 11-30-2007, 11:00 PM

Interesting, I do think he has KJ more than 20% of the time. A lot more. And JJ probably more than anything. Other stuff you are crushed by too. You can only beat a bluff. Someone with THAT low AF would be surprising to see a bluff after you 3bet PF, bet every street. Like less than 2% of the time. Bet/fold, nh.

dlorc · #4 11-30-2007, 11:00 PM

How much do you raise pre? The blind structure is 0.10/0.25 vs the normal .20/.50 at most sites so we're playing a little deeper.

The co made it 3x and I raised to 8x, I'm not sure raising more pre is a great idea as thats more of a resteal than a raise for value from a weaker hand?

mephisto · #5 11-30-2007, 11:03 PM

Raise to $2.75 pre.

Bet $3 on the flop.
Bet $7.5 on the turn.

I think adjusting your betting sizes would have saved you from this weird situation.

dlorc · #6 11-30-2007, 11:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting, I do think he has KJ more than 20% of the time. A lot more. And JJ probably more than anything. Other stuff you are crushed by too. You can only beat a bluff. Someone with THAT low AF would be surprising to see a bluff after you 3bet PF, bet every street. Like less than 2% of the time. Bet/fold, nh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda agree, I'm getting 4.8 to 1 though, I agree vs his range I dont think we're good here more than 20% on the river. I think its more like 5-10%.

What do you think about bet sizing here on all streets?

ceavou22 · #7 11-30-2007, 11:06 PM

ugh I doubt we are ahead here too much but I doubt I fold to a min-raise either.

In general your 3-bet should be at least 3x his open, at least thats the standard.

Cueballmania · #8 11-30-2007, 11:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to $2.75 pre.

Bet $3 on the flop.
Bet $7.5 on the turn.

I think adjusting your betting sizes would have saved you from this weird situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

His flop bet is fine. There are no draws. 1/2 potish is perfect.

mephisto · #9 11-30-2007, 11:13 PM

Meh, I think you miss value by not betting more on that flop. These missed 0.50 opportunities add up after after a good sample size.

vixticator · #10 11-30-2007, 11:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think about bet sizing here on all streets?

[/ QUOTE ]Too small all around. Preflop isn't a disaster, I mix up my 3bet sizes but this would be the least amount I'd ever raise and least frequent amount. On flop you need to bet more if you have it or not and this is a great flop to cbet. On the turn I assume he has a King or some middle pair and bet as much as I think opponent is likely to call, there are no draws, near PSB.

Then unfortunately I'd shove the river given my own bet sizing and lose. Heh. So, you kind of saved money if you did fold but that's a really bad river card.