Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem

Mike Kelley · #1 10-15-2007, 07:06 PM

There has been some discussion about this lately. I've seen 3 or 4 post where the op wondered what caused villains to make such a strange bet. So here is the Theorem.

A minbet (1bb or 2bb) on the flop by OOP villain after Hero is the preflop aggressor = weak hand, straight or flush draw.

I filtered my pokertracker database for hands that I Reraised on the flop since this is a view that I have held from early on in my career. I included hands where my read was wrong, but as you can see from the first 17 hands in my databse the read was wrong 1 time. If someone wants more proof I will continue digging, but I think this is pretty good evidence that the theory holds true.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $30
Mike Kelley (UTG+2): $55.90
MP1: $117.90
MP2: $64.60
CO: $51.60
BTN: $53.95
SB: $10.75
BB: $76.25
UTG: $208.30

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (UTG+2)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $2.50, 6 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $5, UTG calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $15, UTG folds

Results: $16.75 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and WON $15.95 (+$7.95 NET)

This is a hand I didn’t win but it supports my premise that the weak bet means weak hand or a draw….

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $15.45
Mike Kelley (BB): $49.25
UTG: $29.25
UTG+1: $63.20
UTG+2: $8.60
MP1: $11.10
MP2: $49.50
CO: $20.20
BTN: $11.25

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BB)
7 folds, SB calls $0.25, Mike Kelley raises to $2, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $1, Mike Kelley raises to $5, SB calls $4

Turn: ($14) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $1.50, Mike Kelley calls $1.50

River: ($17) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $1, Mike Kelley calls $1

Results: $19 Pot ($0.90 Rake)
SB showed A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Queens and Eights) and WON $18.10 (+$8.60 NET)
Mike Kelley showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$9.50 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $4.40
BB: $9.45
UTG: $40.75
UTG+1: $24.75
UTG+2: $20.75
MP1: $22.70
MP2: $29.20
Mike Kelley (CO): $31.45
BTN: $4.65

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (CO)
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $1.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.25, UTG+2 folds

Flop: ($3.60) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $4, UTG folds

Results: $4.60 Pot ($0.20 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and WON $4.40 (+$2.40 NET)

I missed that the inside straight draw came in on this one, but notice that villain had a weak hand and bet weakly on the flop as a blocker.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Mike Kelley (BTN): $24.65
SB: $33.15
BB: $4.15
UTG: $7.10
UTG+1: $21.85
UTG+2: $11.05
MP1: $16.80
MP2: $50.25
CO: $29.40

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BTN)
3 folds, MP1 raises to $0.50, 2 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $2.50, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2

Flop: ($5.35) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $5, MP1 calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.35) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $16.75, MP1 calls $8.80 and is All-In

River: ($33.95) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $33.95 Pot ($1.65 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and LOST (-$16.80 NET)
MP1 showed A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a straight, Ace to Five) and WON $32.30 (+$15.50 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $26.40
BB: $15
UTG: $11.75
Mike Kelley (UTG+1): $26.15
MP: $14.65
CO: $9.80
BTN: $27.70

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (UTG+1)
UTG calls $0.25, Mike Kelley raises to $1.25, MP calls $1.25, 4 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($4.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG bets $0.25, Mike Kelley raises to $4, 2 folds

Results: $4.60 Pot ($0.20 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $4.40 (+$2.90 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $7.65
MP1: $30.70
Mike Kelley (MP2): $54.70
CO: $28.75
BTN: $48.30
SB: $31.40
BB: $55.25
UTG: $63.55
UTG+1: $84.70

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP2)
4 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $2, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $4, SB folds

Results: $5.50 Pot ($0.25 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $5.25 (+$2.75 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP2: $28.35
Mike Kelley (CO): $52.40
BTN: $42.95
SB: $28.70
BB: $24.60
UTG: $4.20
UTG+1: $20.15
UTG+2: $105.20
MP1: $50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (CO)
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $2.50, BTN folds, SB calls $2.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($6) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $5.50, SB folds

Results: $7 Pot ($0.30 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $6.70 (+$3.70 NET)

And one where it didn’t work.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $109.10
BTN: $45.05
SB: $29
Mike Kelley (BB): $57.05
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $47.25
UTG+2: $9.25
MP1: $7.75
MP2: $61.30

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BB)
7 folds, SB calls $0.25, Mike Kelley raises to $2, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $4, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($12) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Mike Kelley calls $0.50

River: ($13) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $4, Mike Kelley calls $4

Results: $21 Pot ($1 Rake)
SB showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Sixes) and WON $20 (+$9.50 NET)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and LOST (-$10.50 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $21.25
BB: $14.30
UTG: $8.75
Mike Kelley (UTG+1): $45.25
MP: $8.30
CO: $19.15
BTN: $25.30

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (UTG+1)
UTG calls $0.25, Mike Kelley raises to $1.25, 5 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $3, UTG calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Mike Kelley checks

River: ($8.85) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Mike Kelley bets $6.50, UTG calls $4.50 and is All-In

Results: $17.85 Pot ($0.85 Rake)
UTG mucked 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and LOST (-$8.75 NET)
Mike Kelley showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Jacks) and WON $17 (+$8.25 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Mike Kelley (MP1): $55.60
MP2: $47
CO: $52.85
BTN: $54.60
SB: $81.75
BB: $58.35
UTG: $28.75
UTG+1: $32.90
UTG+2: $29

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP1)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 calls $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $3, 5 folds, UTG calls $2.50, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $2.50

Flop: ($10.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets $1, Mike Kelley raises to $7.50, 2 folds

Results: $12.25 Pot ($0.55 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $11.70 (+$7.70 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Mike Kelley (BTN): $51.35
SB: $23.65
BB: $25
UTG: $5.05
UTG+1: $5.65
MP1: $8.15
MP2: $11.25
CO: $31.65

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BTN)
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $1.50, 3 folds, MP1 calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 bets $0.25, Mike Kelley raises to $3, MP1 folds

Results: $4.10 Pot ($0.15 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $3.95 (+$2.20 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $19
BTN: $48.20
SB: $7.50
BB: $14.10
UTG: $56.60
Mike Kelley (UTG+1): $68
UTG+2: $47.95
MP1: $28.65
MP2: $24.75

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (UTG+1)
UTG folds, Mike Kelley raises to $2, 6 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB bets $1, Mike Kelley raises to $5, BB folds

Results: $6.25 Pot ($0.30 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $5.95 (+$2.95 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $4.05
UTG+1: $62.25
UTG+2: $7.85
Mike Kelley (MP1): $28.75
MP2: $14.20
CO: $14.40
BTN: $24.65
SB: $26.25
BB: $25

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP1)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $1.25, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG+1 bets $0.25, Mike Kelley raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $2.75

Turn: ($8.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Mike Kelley bets $6, UTG+1 calls $6

River: ($20.85) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Mike Kelley checks

Results: $20.85 Pot ($1 Rake)
UTG+1 showed 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Fives and Deuces) and WON $19.85 (+$9.60 NET)
Mike Kelley mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and LOST (-$10.25 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $50.25
BB: $18.25
UTG: $84.65
UTG+1: $27.10
MP1: $14.25
MP2: $58.20
CO: $17.60
Mike Kelley (BTN): $49.25

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $2.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $5, UTG calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $15, UTG folds

Results: $16.75 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $15.95 (+$7.95 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP2: $21.05
CO: $27.05
Mike Kelley (BTN): $24.65
SB: $37.65
BB: $5.05
UTG: $24.15
UTG+1: $27.95
MP1: $24.75

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BTN)
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $1.25, SB folds, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($3.85) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG bets $0.25, Mike Kelley raises to $3, BB folds, UTG calls $2.75

Turn: ($9.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Mike Kelley bets $6.25, UTG folds

Results: $9.85 Pot ($0.45 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $9.40 (+$5.15 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $19.30
BTN: $25.35
SB: $21.25
BB: $16.95
UTG: $13.75
UTG+1: $18.70
Mike Kelley (MP1): $25.40
MP2: $10.05

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP1)
2 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Mike Kelley raises to $3, SB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Mike Kelley bets $7, SB calls $7

River: ($22.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Mike Kelley bets $11.50, SB calls $10.25 and is All-In

Results: $42.75 Pot ($2.05 Rake)
SB mucked 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and LOST (-$21.25 NET)
Mike Kelley showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON $40.70 (+$19.45 NET)

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Mike Kelley (MP1): $34.40
MP2: $17.05
CO: $37.85
BTN: $14.75
SB: $28.15
BB: $54.10
UTG: $130.90
UTG+1: $50.35
UTG+2: $61.10

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP1)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Mike Kelley raises to $2.25, 3 folds, SB calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $1, Mike Kelley raises to $5, SB calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Mike Kelley bets $10, SB folds

Results: $15.50 Pot ($0.75 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $14.75 (+$7.50 NET)