Possible Facebook IPO: History reapeating itself?

[El Diablo]

Evan,

"maxtower, with all due respect, how could you possibly know how much facebook makes in ad revenue."

I dunno, maybe he has super secret insider sources like THE WALL STREET F'ING JOURNAL AND EVERY TECH BUSINESS BLOG IN THE WORLD

[El Diablo]

xx,

"The tech bubble had literally 100's of companies with little or no revenues financed with all VC money."

Thousands, not hundreds, and that is exactly the same situation right now. Page views and users, not revenues, are still metrics used to justify very hefty financings and valuations.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Evan,

You picked just about the worst possible example for this.

Facebook is a cash cow.

They raised VC money when they were scaling super fast and focused on just growing users and page views, and weren't worried about monetizing anything yet.

They have just started that process and initial numbers are pretty staggering. They have been widely reported.

Now with Facebook Platform they instantly have created one of the most locked in and strongest ecosystems in the internet business world to help fuel their growth.

Your whole thesis is so messed up it's barely worth discussing. There are many indicators that point to a possible bubble repeating past mistakes, and many indicators pointing to things being very different this time around. But the starting point of your discussions is just completely backwards and fundamentally flawed.

Your research, analysis, and commentary is very disappointing.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think facebook isn't a good company. I have read a lot people recently saying "this time is different because it's not spilling over into the public markets." I doubt the first companies that eventually would be identified as part of the late 90's tech bubble were terrible companies either.

Also, I feel like I should reiterate again that I don't think we're likely headed toward a situation like that. I'm not trying to convince anyone that we are. I just thought it would make an interesting discussion. I think you're taking some of what I said a little out of context/too far. Either way, your point that you don't think this is like the last bubble is totally reasonable.

[El Diablo]

Barron,

"i think more reasonably, P/E companies & VC companies have been awash with liquidity in the recent past and found some good business plans in which to invest some of that cash."

The last couple of years have seen more complete BS business plans w/ no viable business model get professional VC funding than has happened since the dot-com bubble days.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Evan,

Read this: http://blog.pmarca.com/2007/06/bubbles_on_the_.html

Then see trackbacks and comments to read blog posts agreeing and disagreeing w/ Marc and related blog posts.

Then you'll be able to make a more informed post, including links to a lot of relevant posts on both sides of this debate.

[/ QUOTE ]
This was one of the recent blog posts/articles I've read that inspired the thread.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Evan,

"maxtower, with all due respect, how could you possibly know how much facebook makes in ad revenue."

I dunno, maybe he has super secret insider sources like THE WALL STREET F'ING JOURNAL AND EVERY TECH BUSINESS BLOG IN THE WORLD

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe I've just been reading the wrong stuff or I skimmed something too quickly, but I haven't seen any concrete numbers. Everything I've read has been guesswork similar to what Kedrosky posted. It looks like I'm probably wrong. The last "real" number I saw was in the TechCrunch post about Yahoo's buyout offer where they say 2005 was $9.5 million. After that it's all estimates. That's such a far cry from what's being talked about these days (like 500 mil) that I assumed he was working off something else. Again, maybe I was wrong and maybe I've missed news. I never claimed to know everything about this company, I just thought it was an interesting topic.

[El Diablo]

Evan,

"Either way, your point that you don't think this is like the last bubble is totally reasonable."

That was not my point at all, and I have not said whether or not I think we are in a similar bubble. You just did exactly what I'm criticizing you for, reading something quickly, thinking you understand it, and whipping off some post. Take some time and actually think and try to understand what is really being said before making posts and they'll be a lot more worthwhile.

My point was that before engaging in a discussion like this in this forum you should educate yourself a little bit so you have at least a basic clue regarding what you're talking about. Much of what you are writing in this thread really makes no sense at all and has no grounding in fact or logic.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Evan,

"Either way, your point that you don't think this is like the last bubble is totally reasonable."

That was not my point at all, and I have not said whether or not I think we are in a similar bubble. You just did exactly what I'm criticizing you for, reading something quickly, thinking you understand it, and whipping off some post. Take some time and actually think and try to understand what is really being said before making posts and they'll be a lot more worthwhile.

My point was that before engaging in a discussion like this in this forum you should educate yourself a little bit so you have at least a basic clue regarding what you're talking about. Much of what you are writing in this thread really makes no sense at all and has no grounding in fact or logic.

[/ QUOTE ]
"There are many indicators that point to a possible bubble repeating past mistakes, and many indicators pointing to things being very different this time around."

That was what I was referring to. To me that means you're not convinced this is like last time. That's all I said.

[maxtower]

Evan,

I don't know if Facebook's valuation points to an internet company bubble, but I do think that the prices people are willing to pay for domain names is getting out of hand.

Is it possible to check out random chicks' Facebook profiles without being their friend?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Barron,

"i think more reasonably, P/E companies & VC companies have been awash with liquidity in the recent past and found some good business plans in which to invest some of that cash."

The last couple of years have seen more complete BS business plans w/ no viable business model get professional VC funding than has happened since the dot-com bubble days.

[/ QUOTE ]

el d,

thats pretty funny. i used the correct data (liquidity) and came to the opposite conclusion.

go me.

Barron