writing an article, want to double check math

[ALReturnsLOL]

We will examine a few situations and applicable concepts

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
6 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2003.90
UTG+1: $745.50
CO: $932.00
Hero: $1000.00
SB: $1203.50
BB: $1000.00

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, Hero raises to $40, SB folds, BB raises to 120$, Hero calls.

Flop: ($245, 2 players)
BB bets 190$, Hero?




Is this a good spot to play back at your opponent? To determine this we need to look at (x) our hand QsJs (y) the range our opponent 3 bets with preflop (z) our opponents range for calling once we raise.


So now that we know the individual elements let’s take a look at how often our opponent has a strong holding

If your opponent is on the tighter side he will be 3-betting a range similar to this

88+,AJs+,AQo+

On a flop of Ts2h4c he will have an overpair, set, or marginal pair 50% of the time.

Once you subtract marginal pairs (99,88) from that range, the picture becomes even more clear

On a flop of Ts2h4c he will have an overpair or set 34% of the time.



if you have any questions about how I came up with this equation I would be happy to answer, thanks for the help!