live misclick v. thetakeover 25/50 nl LIVE, 300bb deep...

[AcidKnight]

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Agree w/ consensus... check flop.

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ok...so flop is a check. what do you do, afterwards, given my awkward flop bet? what is nick's range given action? thanks,
dlpnyc21

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It depends.
Are you willing to play for stacks here? (I don't think you should be)
Is he ever slowing down on the turn with any of his range if you flat call?
Would you ever bet a draw here? If so, would you get it AI on the flop against his range here?

It's basically a big game of how you think he's gonna react to your moves. Your hand is pretty transparent and if you're not willing to stack off here, I'd be mostly folding on the flop and I guess sometimes flatting the flop and folding to a solid turn bet.

[dlpnyc21]

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Agree w/ consensus... check flop.

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ok...so flop is a check. what do you do, afterwards, given my awkward flop bet? what is nick's range given action? thanks,
dlpnyc21

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It depends.
Are you willing to play for stacks here? (I don't think you should be)
Is he ever slowing down on the turn with any of his range if you flat call?
Would you ever bet a draw here? If so, would you get it AI on the flop against his range here?

It's basically a big game of how you think he's gonna react to your moves. Your hand is pretty transparent and if you're not willing to stack off here, I'd be mostly folding on the flop and I guess sometimes flatting the flop and folding to a solid turn bet.

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Don't think I would play for stacks here, I would most likely call and evalute turn. Would probably flat with AA/1010/8x some of the time as well, and shove with them. Would shove most combo draws (although sometimes call with them).

I am not sure if he would slow down on turn, I imagine he would have to be scared after I bet smallish on flop, then "just called" his cr, he would have to be worried I have a big hand, making a turn bet without a very strong hand (we're basically all in on the turn) less likely. That said, if he feels I am weak, I see no reason why he couldn't shove turn, just that he would be less likely to given how strong I look.

[AcidKnight]

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Don't think I would play for stacks here, I would most likely call and evalute turn. Would probably flat with AA/1010/8x some of the time as well, and shove with them. Would shove most combo draws (although sometimes call with them).

I am not sure if he would slow down on turn, I imagine he would have to be scared after I bet smallish on flop, then "just called" his cr, he would have to be worried I have a big hand, making a turn bet without a very strong hand (we're basically all in on the turn) less likely. That said, if he feels I am weak, I see no reason why he couldn't shove turn, just that he would be less likely to given how strong I look.

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If you're not willing to play for stacks, then I'd be folding most of the time and calling some of the time, maybe 75/25 depending on what Nick's been doing. For a player as good as he is, you're probably just throwing away money calling most of the time here just because he will lead the turn with such a high frequency and you basically say that you'll be folding to that bet. I agree that he'll have to consider the possibility that you might actually have AA or 8x or TT, but really the only one of those hands that really falls into the meat of your range based on preflop action is TT and since it's only one hand (well, 3 combos) in your range, I'd expect him to bet the turn often.

[dlpnyc21]

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Don't think I would play for stacks here, I would most likely call and evalute turn. Would probably flat with AA/1010/8x some of the time as well, and shove with them. Would shove most combo draws (although sometimes call with them).

I am not sure if he would slow down on turn, I imagine he would have to be scared after I bet smallish on flop, then "just called" his cr, he would have to be worried I have a big hand, making a turn bet without a very strong hand (we're basically all in on the turn) less likely. That said, if he feels I am weak, I see no reason why he couldn't shove turn, just that he would be less likely to given how strong I look.

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If you're not willing to play for stacks, then I'd be folding most of the time and calling some of the time, maybe 75/25 depending on what Nick's been doing. For a player as good as he is, you're probably just throwing away money calling most of the time here just because he will lead the turn with such a high frequency and you basically say that you'll be folding to that bet. I agree that he'll have to consider the possibility that you might actually have AA or 8x or TT, but really the only one of those hands that really falls into the meat of your range based on preflop action is TT and since it's only one hand (well, 3 combos) in your range, I'd expect him to bet the turn often.

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great post, thank you,
dlpnyc21

[imabigdeal]

fwiw i think i like a reraise pf

[thatpfunk]

i cant believe im saying this but... nice post ae :P

[ceczar]

if we assume nick is always making really good higher level decisions, then i think we have to check the flop, but the reality is that he's going to be betting most of the time with hands that beat you, even if checking that flop with those hands would have been the right move. people are also underestimating how wide your range is and btn's range. the RR is just for 5% of stacks. i think it's the case of posters piling on and engaging in a bit of groupthink. the smallish bet is obviously bad if you don't know how often it will induce a bluff raise. i think a 2k bet is still the best play. this hand does not get easier if the flop is checked, similarly if btn bets, which i think is likely with a large part of his range.

given what's happened so far, if we're committed i think call and call/push the turn is far far better than pushing the flop. i haven't played enough with nick to know how often he'd be making a move here. i don't think he'd try to get you to fold JJ/QQ here in this game, so i don't believe your hand is as obvious as people seem to think it is, especially given your weird bet.

[snugglez88]

I think reraising pre-flop is good because THAT makes your hand much easier to play. If he pushes/rr's you fold... if he flats I'd put him on JJ/AK+ himself and be pretty concerned. As played I think I would just fold once he reraises you. Your hand isn't strong enough to stand up when he tests you on the turn. A flop check for pot control makes your hand a lot easier to play I think. On a safe turn if it checks to you you can bet or check. I think you can only get 1 street of value on this hand.

[dlpnyc21]

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I think reraising pre-flop is good because THAT makes your hand much easier to play. If he pushes/rr's you fold... if he flats I'd put him on JJ/AK+ himself and be pretty concerned. As played I think I would just fold once he reraises you. Your hand isn't strong enough to stand up when he tests you on the turn. A flop check for pot control makes your hand a lot easier to play I think. On a safe turn if it checks to you you can bet or check. I think you can only get 1 street of value on this hand.

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you realize there is another person in the hand right? You also realize that by checking, if my hand is good on the flop, a quarter of the deck is likely to hurt me, also.

In addition, to the people who think that betting 1200 is the same as 1700-2k, I strongly disagree. 1700 will seem substantial enough that it'll be treated like a real bet. 1200 looks so weird it's asking to be interpreted funny. don't understand why you don't see that.

Can I profitably call his CR? Or, if I think I am good on the flop, is shoving best?

Thanks,
dlpnyc21

[The Maker]

This is my first post. Take it for what its worth.

I think this hand is very interesting. Raising pre-flop would have made this hand easier to play post-flop. But not raising isn't necessarily a mistake. Since you didn't raise you have alot of things to think about on the flop. I would be worried about the button cold calling pre-flop. Your flop bet and size are also not really a mistake. It got the button to fold which gives you position for the rest of the hand and based on its size in relation to the size of the pot I don't think it clearly defines your hand. Especially because of how deep you are.

Once you get check raised the rest of the hand depends on what level of thinking you put your opponent on. If you think he can accurately narrow your hand down based on your perception of him as a player and the flow of the hand then you need to weigh the likely hood that he knows what you have and is trying to push you off of your hand. What does he put you on? If he knows he is beat how much effort will he put toward pushing you off of your hand? Or has he made the correct read and is raising for value? I would consider a reraise. You have position. You isolated him with your flop bet so all of the aggression of his check raise is directed at you which is something he could do with a wide range of hands. I think he could easily have AKs AQs AJs. QQ+ is possible but I think he would have bet the flop. Your raise size makes me think that a cr was not his original intent and he thinks he can now take it away.