50NL: How much to raise?

[RapidEvolution]

Villain is 35/0/1 over 132 hands.

I've been running 13/9/5 at the table so far

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$34.55</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$89.45</font>)
MP1 (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
MP2 (<font color="#0000cc">$50.40</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$19.25</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$85.15</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$49.50</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$79.40</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is BTN 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">5 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, SB calls $1.5, BB calls $1.25

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5.25, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#777777">SB folds</font>, BB calls $3

The flop seems pretty innocent, so I take a poke at it. When I get called, I figure BB probably has a weak queen or something. He seems like the calling type, so I'm probably not going to fire the turn.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($11.25, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

I pick up an open-ended straight draw. I contemplate betting, but decide against it for reasons mentioned. Plus, if I hit an ace and villain called the flop with overs, I could make some nice money.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($11.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $11.25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to...? </font>

There's no way he can put me on a straight here and he's suddenly betting out! Min-raise? 30? Shove? I think I suck in spots like this...

[ship_it_trebek]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 35/0/1 over 132 hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

a PSB on the river at 50NL is rarely ever a bluff, and the opponent has a AF of 1. He clearly likes his hand, and I think he's calling whether the raise is to 30 or AI. So i shove.

[novel20]

All of it.

[shooot@04]

shove

[RapidEvolution]

I opted to raise to 30 here, and villain folded. My thinking here was twofold.

1) If villain has AQ, he's shoving over my river bet and all the monies are going in.

2) If villain was floating me with two overs (say AJ or maybe even AK), then my flop lead/turn check, river shove would look a lot like AQ and he might get away since there are still 150BB left, but he may think I'm bluffing enough (or am on a worse A) to call getting 2-1.

Again, I feel like I'm sucking in these spots...

[CalledDownLight]

shove

[xxrod17xx]

I think you made a good bet. With both of you really deep and only about 8% of each of your stack in the pot an A probably doesnt call a shove. I actually really like your raise size because it will get raised AI by AQ maybe even a weaker two pair, it also will extract some value against some weaker hands against a showdown addict or someone who just doesn't want to lay down. I wouldn't sweat this situation here because this time he prob didn't have a hand or just made a pretty good laydown. Like trebek said, A river PSB like this is almost never a bluff...just this time it looked like it may have been.

[Peak01]

I like your bet rather than a shove only because you are both so deep.

[Specialwon]

With these kinds of passive villains, you have to do their betting for them and its usually best to assume they have the best possible losing hand which is probably AQ here. So, a shove seems best, I doubt you get called much less often than a bet to 30.

I also half-3/4 pot bet the turn in this hand. I think you're too quick to put villain on a Q, he is a station and is just as likely to have a mid pair or Ax and even bigtime calling stations usually give up to a second barrel unless they really have at least TP.

As you discovered it's pretty tough to get paid after you hit and you fold out a lot of A hi hands that otherwise are going to take this pot on the river.

[BigDan9]

Assume a split pot and just call? lol

I think I would have raised to around 30-35 myself (min raises suck) but I can definitely see the merits of shoving.

Still, even a calling station will start to think seriously about how many of his chips he's putting on the line if you shove.

Could we assume that a player like this will fold 50% of the time to a shove that puts all of his deep stack on the line (I think he'll only call if he has a AQ or a set) but he will almost always call a decent sized raise for around half of his stack. If that's the case, either move generates roughly the same profit, doesn't it?