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#1
05-13-2007, 01:59 PM
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Live hand $1/$2 NL, I know I\'m behind - calling a mistake?
Was on a golf weekend in Niagara Falls, decided to play some poker at Fallsview - played a few hours of $1/$2 NL. Game was pretty soft - I was up a fair bit - had about $250 in front of me (buyin was $100).
This was my last hand of the session - new dealer was ready to go, session fee coming up. People knew I was leaving after this hand. Dealt 88. Made it $10 to go - standard PF raise at our table. Villain calls - he's been the standard calling station - but he's folding to overbets. Just the two of us to the flop, I have position - pot is ~$26 Flop comes AAT. Villain hesitates, thinks about betting, then checks. Here's where I make my mistake - I bet $50. He's got $71 behind. He insta pushes. So here's the question - is this a call? I know - for sure - that he's got an ace. I have two outs that can help me, hopefully. Costs me $21 into a ~$150 pot. I KNOW that I made a mistake with the $50 bet on the flop. I knew he had an ace by the way he hesitated. I ignored my read on him, and bet more than I needed - dumb followed by dumb. But I don't know if my calling of the extra $21 was a mistake too... Is it dumb followed by dumb, followed by another dumb? Or just two dumbs and a "whatcha gonna do?" thx OT cliff notes HH style: Villain: $82 DumbHero: $250 Deat to DumbHero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] PF: DumbHero raises to $10 Villain calls $10 Pot ~$26 FLOP: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain: Makes like he's gonna bet, then Checks DumbHero: Bets $50 Villain: Raises to $71 (all-in) Hero: ??? 
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#2
05-13-2007, 02:09 PM
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Re: Live hand $1/$2 NL, I know I\'m behind - calling a mistake?
Looks like a 2-outer. $21 is too much to call mathematically, but I still do it - it is close, and IF you hit, you can put him on major tilt, which is also worth something.
Call and spike that 8.
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#3
05-13-2007, 02:11 PM
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Re: Live hand $1/$2 NL, I know I\'m behind - calling a mistake?
pot is 140 or something, 20 to call...7-1. even if you are up against A2 you have less than 10% equity, and thats not counting houses already. so you need like 9-1 atleast. you arent getting it. fold
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#4
05-13-2007, 02:13 PM
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Re: Live hand $1/$2 NL, I know I\'m behind - calling a mistake?
oh yea i forgot to take account for those things you can quantify. Like is the expected tilt worth it if you hit your 8? Will he start playing like 100/90/1 or something? If yes then i guess so. If it will make everybody at the table think you are a calling station and never bluff you it will be alot easier to play.
If you were getting like 8.5-1 and needed 9-1 against his range id call...because its only a small mistake and will probably help for metagame. but this is too big a mistake i think to call
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#6
05-13-2007, 02:37 PM
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Re: Live hand $1/$2 NL, I know I\'m behind - calling a mistake?
omg yea, i just realised OP bet 2x the pot as a cbet. lol, there is no point in doing that. 18$ does the same as dacooler said
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#7
05-13-2007, 02:58 PM
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Re: Live hand $1/$2 NL, I know I\'m behind - calling a mistake?
I thought I was clear that I knew the $50 bet was too much on the flop. Reason for it was read-specific - he was folding to overbets, was calling down (even when beaten) standard cbets...
Frankly I shouldn't have bet ANYTHING on the flop based on my read. My question was specific to the math of the extra $20 after the checkraise. thx for the answers.
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#8
05-13-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: Live hand $1/$2 NL, I know I\'m behind - calling a mistake?
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like a 2-outer. $21 is too much to call mathematically, but I still do it - it is close, and IF you hit, you can put him on major tilt, which is also worth something. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, that major tilt will be worth a s.h1t load seeing as this is his last hand. Easy fold.
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