Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:47 AM
Post-Oak Post-Oak is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 899
Default Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

I'm surprised to see LSU as such a heavy favorite to win the BCS Championship, especially because it is possible to bet against them on at least 3 different sites (WSEX, 5Dimes, Matchbook).

I already shorted them on WSEX at -122, -138 and -156. You can now bet against them at -178.

Here's my calculations for their chance to win the BCS. I am assuming they need to win all of their remaining games, which is a good assumption, though not 100%.

Regular season games (with spread and chance to win):

@ Mississippi -19.5 89.6%
Arkansas -14.5 83.0%

The game at Mississippi is this Saturday, so obviously the line is available. The line for the Arkansas game is a game of the year, so that line is available. The winning percentages are calculated using Pinny's moneylines. So according to available lines, LSU has a 25.6% of losing again before the regular season is even over.

After the regular season, they will play in the SEC Championship game in the Georgia Dome (Atlanta, Georgia). They will play either Tennessee, Georgia or Florida.

Tennesse is 4-2 in the SEC, with two conference games left. If they win them both, they win the SEC. This would probably be the easiest opponent of the three for LSU to face. Here are their remaining games.

Vanderbilt -11.5 79.2%
@ Kentucky (PK) (50.0%)

Any numbers in paranthesis are my estimates. Any number not in paranthesis is an available line. Their chance of winning out is estimated by me as 39.6%. This is the only way they win the SEC East.

Georgia is 5-2 in the SEC and only has 1 SEC game left.

Kentucky -7.5 73.0%

Here's the scenarios and how they shake out.

1. Georgia wins Kentucky (73.0%), Tennessee wins both (39.6%) = Tennessee wins SEC East 28.9%

2. Georgia wins (73%), Tennessee wins (79.2%), then loses (50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 28.9%

3. Georgia wins (73%), Tennesse loses (20.8%), then wins (50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 7.6%

4. Georgia wins (73%), Tennesse loses twice (20.8% X 50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 7.6%

5. Georgia loses (27%), Tennessee wins twice (39.6%) = Tennessee wins SEC East 10.7%

6. Georgia loses, Tennesse wins, then loses = Florida wins SEC East 10.7%

7. Georgia loses, Tennesse loses, then wins = Florida wins SEC East 2.8%

8. Georgia loses, Tennesse loses both - Florida wins SEC East 2.8%

The way Florida wins is if more than 2 teams finish at 5-3, they will win the tiebreaker. The key is that Kentucky would be 5-3 if they beat Georgia and Tennesse, which means 3 teams will be 5-3 in any of the scenarios where Georgia loses and Tennesse splits.

Tenn 39.6%
GA 44.1%
FL 16.3%

Here's the lines I made up for the SEC Championship in Atlanta, GA (Georgia has been given a HFA).

Georgia vs LSU (-3) (59.0%)
Tennesse vs LSU (-7.5) (73.0%)
Florida vs LSU (-3) (59.0%)

So we'll say that LSU has a 64.5% chance (the weighted average) to win the SEC Championship game. We're down to a 48.0% chance of them still not having their second loss by now.

The BCS Championship game is in New Orleans, which we'll consider as being a home field advantage. Their opponent will very likely be Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma or Missouri. Whichever one of these powerhouses wins out will be a formidable opponent and we'll say that LSU is about equal to them.

LSU (-3) (60%)

So we come to a final number of 28.8% to win the BCS title. That means +247 would be a fair line. It is possible to bet against them at -175 on Matchbook and 5Dimes. It is -178 on WSEX.

I would like to hear from anyone who disagrees with my estimated lines, especially if you think LSU should be an even bigger favorite in the games I estimated.


LSU Schedule:

@ Mississippi -19.5 89.6%
Arkansas -14.5 83.0%
SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA - Georgia Dome) (64.5%)
BCS Championship (New Orleans, LA - Louisiana Superdome) (60%)
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:54 AM
crockpot crockpot is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: /goggles fill up with tears / oh crap hold on can\'t see anything
Posts: 4,980
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

i don't know much about college football, but i don't think it's correct to call kansas a powerhouse. other than that, good analysis.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:08 AM
Post-Oak Post-Oak is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 899
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know much about college football, but i don't think it's correct to call kansas a powerhouse. other than that, good analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I meant was that any team that LSU meets will definitely have earned it.

Kansas is a good example. Their last 3 games would be:

Iowa St (patsy)
Missouri (top 5 team)
vs Oklahoma (top 5 team on neutral field in Big 12 Championship)

So if Kansas gets to the BCS game, they will be 13-0 after a very tough schedule. So what I mean is that any of these teams would be a handful:

Kansas 13-0
Missouri 12-1
Oklahoma 12-1
Oregon 11-1
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:58 AM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: kingputtlv
Posts: 7,328
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

Good work. I like your numbers.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-14-2007, 09:57 AM
BobbyLight BobbyLight is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Hollyweird
Posts: 96
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

It's solely based on who they play in the Conference Championship Game. Right now Matthew Stafford has his confidence very high, Georgia's defense is flying around but the main reason is because of Knowshown Moreno and Thomas Brown really running the football extremely well. Moreno looks like a Heisman Trophy winner the last four weeks.

I don't think LSU can beat Georgia if they have to play, if Georgia continues on this path. Georgia, to me, not showing up against UT or playing subpar against South Carolina cost themselves the national championship because if they had one loss they would still be playing for it.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-14-2007, 12:27 PM
Dawg24 Dawg24 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 157
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

[ QUOTE ]
It's solely based on who they play in the Conference Championship Game. Right now Matthew Stafford has his confidence very high, Georgia's defense is flying around but the main reason is because of Knowshown Moreno and Thomas Brown really running the football extremely well. Moreno looks like a Heisman Trophy winner the last four weeks.

I don't think LSU can beat Georgia if they have to play, if Georgia continues on this path. Georgia, to me, not showing up against UT or playing subpar against South Carolina cost themselves the national championship because if they had one loss they would still be playing for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

you sound like us GA fans....The South Carolina game still hurts...
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-14-2007, 01:12 PM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 8,227
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

I don't agree that the Mizzou v Kansas winner is automatically a 'real' team. I think AzzuSt or Oregon would light them up on a neutral field [and I'm anti-P10 most years.]

They remind me of Mich and Ohio last year, only worse because at least Mich was undefeated before losing that game. It's just that neither team was exposed until January rather than October due to scheduling.

Missou has one solid win. Barely.

Kansas struggled with 5-5 KSt, and has wins over FIU, CMich, SELa, Toldeo - that's pathetic right thre.
Okla lost to 5-6 Colo, and struggled to beat awful ISU.

In short, the biggest worry is that LSU would be a much bigger fave vs any B12 team, as they will likely still be a 'patsy' team. Their Sagarin SoS skeds are 97 [hello Kansas!], 82, 52 respectively. So I utterly disagree with the UK has played a tough sked argument, they'll go from no top 30 teams to having played 2. Oregon's played 4 already, Ohio will have played 4, etc.

Oregon is 12 and AzzuSt 27, numbers that will climb for AzzuSt after playing USC et al.

And LSU may only be a slight fave or PK over Oregon if OU slams Zona, OSU [32 in Sag], UCLA as they sure might.

Anywhere below -150 was a very nice price for you, I agree. But I think LSU -3 is too low considering if Oregon loses, they will be favored by 6-7 or more over any B12 team, and likely Ohio as well.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-14-2007, 01:25 PM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Rugby Heaven
Posts: 382
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

1. Have you actually watched these teams play? Missouri is a very good team and will be a handful for anyone. I'd like to see Kansas more on neutral field/road before I'm convinced they are as good as they have looked but if they beat Mizzou and OU, they will do that.

2. University of Kansas is KU, not UK. This would confuse them with Kentucky. Oregon is UO, not OU. That is Oklahoma. Please either use full names or the correct abbreviations in the future.

3. This whole "struggled" concept is funny. Kansas struggled in their rivalry game? At Kansas State? ZOMG! How many teams has LSU struggled against?

4. Oklahoma lost one game, at altitude, to an inconsistent team. They muffed crucial punts and took their foot off the gas in the second half. This is a very good team.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-14-2007, 01:29 PM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 8,227
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

1. Yes. Many times.
2. No.
3. Is not.
4. They have 1-loss v the #52 schedule. If they win the B12 title game we will see how good they are. Regardless, they are not as good as #2 Oregon or AzzuSt [ZOMG has 1-loss @ #2 Oregon, a much better team than UC]

Personally, I hope the B12 rep makes it as I enjoy winning huge wads of cash shorting them in BCS title games: 55-17, 13-2, Miami up 34-0 in 2nd Q. Their record is vomitriffic the past 10 years in these games.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-14-2007, 01:59 PM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Rugby Heaven
Posts: 382
Default Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title

For 2, do you do it to be annoying, just insist on being incorrect or to make your post harder to read? I see you've done it again with CU, not UC.

For 4, you honestly think ASU is a better team than any Big 12 team? That's pretty funny. Fortunately we should get to see ASU play the worst of those 3 teams in the Holiday Bowl.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:37 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.