HUSNG variance question

[doug1616]

I started a 400 game challenge at 5 buck turbos awhile back.
Just completed it about a week ago. 241-159. Since then im at 42-54. Was planning on moving up but.... is this variance or do I need to think things over.... i feel like im getting owned.....400 should be an okay sample for sure and according to a binom calc it should be near to impossible for a 60 percent player to run this bad. Is there some sort of i dunno meta variance in husngs that cant be accounted for by analysing them as a sort of virtual coinflip.
thanks,
doug

[ChicagoRy]

A few things..

Your sample isn't perfect, you could be a lesser winner.

You could have tilted after a few losses.

Are you sure a 60% winner can't lose 12 buyins over 100 games? It sounds like it would be super rare but I can't imagine it being one of those "1 in a 100k" things.

I would play 5s until you get your 12 buyins back and then step up (provided you have the br). Play a few hundred 10s and take a look at your winrate.

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]
I started a 400 game challenge at 5 buck turbos awhile back.
Just completed it about a week ago. 241-159. Since then im at 42-54. Was planning on moving up but.... is this variance or do I need to think things over.... i feel like im getting owned.....400 should be an okay sample for sure and according to a binom calc it should be near to impossible for a 60 percent player to run this bad. Is there some sort of i dunno meta variance in husngs that cant be accounted for by analysing them as a sort of virtual coinflip.
thanks,
doug

[/ QUOTE ]

if you want to get answers to this kinda stuff i highly recommend you read chapters 1-6 of mathematics of poker. This exact problem is laid out very well in either chapter 4 or 5 and requires you to use the sampling distribution of your data witha normal approximation. I'd do the math but gotta go pick my wife up at airport.

[doug1616]

thanks, i used

http://onlinestatbook.com/java/binomialProb.html
N=sample size P=true win rate and the fields down the bottom measure number of sucessful trials ie wins. If ive understood it correctly.

to come up with the numbers i was just wondering if it is correct to analyse each sng individually or whether distributions of rare events like say flush over set boat over flush KK vs TT have more of an impact in how you analyse the games. Cause rare events are obviously more streaky. Whenever i read about variance it seems there is always more of it than people expect. MoP is on my to buy list though.

Thanks,

Doug

[dippy111]

yeah, if you really have a 60% winrate then the chances of being down 12 buyins over 100 games is about 1/1000. Even if your true winrate is slightly lower it's very unlikely. What is likely, is that you tilted. Tilt is a HU player's worst enemy, and is a real winrate killer.