Huge Value in CFL

[polkaface]

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not sure what the deal is with these lines, and I have limited knowledge of teams at this point. Toronto is hosting the Grey Cup, so they would HFA vs Saskatchewan (but Sask has batshit insane fans ... only travelling fans in the CFL).

As one would expect in a small league it's not uncommon for the teams getting the 1st round bye to get upset. 18 game seasons with 8-9 teams in the league and you get a chance to pad your win totals vs certain types of opponents

Did some digging, since 1990
Road teams in the Div finals are 11-23
7 times the Grey cup winner was a Div finals road team.

Home teams in the Div final who are the Grey Cup host have a history of choking: 2-5 since 1990 ... but I'm pretty I've read that historically they have always fared poorly. This years game is basically sold out though so there's no excess stress on TO to get in so this thing can be a financial success.

Reg season records:
BC 14-3-1
SASK 12-6
TORONTO 11-7
WINNIPEG 10-7-1

TOR started the year like 2-6 though when Mike Bishop from KSU (yes his football IQ is still as bad now as when he was with New England ... hell of an arm though). BC played their 3rd string QB most of the year (Jarius Jackson - tOSU right?) and still won a tonne of games. Heard on the radio during my commute that Sask is really beat up on D and at RB.

My guesstimate on potential spreads for the final:
BC -2 vs Toronto, -10 vs Winnipeg
Tor -5 vs Sask
Sask -3 vs Winnipeg

I'd be inclined to make a small play on both road teams, but I have no way of quantifying the edge. I don't think the value is "huge". No idea on the spread to moneyline conversion in the CFL either.

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Close... Jarious Jackson is from Notre Dame.

[Runner Runner]

Pinny shows moneylines of Toronto at -300 and BC at -310 for this weekend's games. I think the moneylines and spreads of -6.5 and -7.5 are fairly correct, though if you put a gun to my head I would bet the dog in either matchup.

I don't know if those future bets are a mistake, but if they aren't there is definitely HUGE value on both WPG and SASK as you would be paid nowhere near those numbers by parlaying the moneylines.

Wpg pays +270 in the semi and probably around the same if they play BC and less (only about a 4-6 pt dog) if they play Sask. This would be +1000 against BC and less against Sask.

Sask pays +280 in the semi and I see them being less then a 3pt dog against Toronto and a fave should Wpg win. There is definite value on them at +950 to win the whole thing.

IMO, that future bet is not an obvious book error, but it's close and there is definite dog value and worth asking the book about before betting it.

By the way, IMO BC is by far the strongest team in the CFL, and I have Sask as being slightly stronger then Toronto. If I were to do power rankings with BC as a 10, I would rank Sask as a 6, Toronto as a 5 and Wpg as a 2.

[Runner Runner]

I just teased Tor and BC down to -0.5 and -1.5 in the division finals since that is quite a bit better then parlaying the moneylines.

Watch BC win by 1 now.

[4Tay]

It only takes a rouge (1-pt kick into the end-zone) to win a game.