live 6/12, AJo vs. position play?

[mntndrew]

Tough, tight table, in the process of getting a table change. New player limps in MP, BN raises. I can't tell if BN is an idiotic maniac or if he's trying to run over the tight table, but he's coming in thin a lot, having shown down A6o, T9o and 98s for preflop raises.

SB folds, Hero looks at A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB and 3-bets. MP calls, as BN starts rambling, "Just because you have an ace, don't get out of control. Or a mid-pocket pair maybe. Probably just an ace. Go easy, man." BN caps, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop [11.5 SB]: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets, MP calls, BN calls.

Turn [7.25 BB]: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets, MP calls, BN calls.

River [10.25 BB]: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero pauses, BN says, "Don't do it, don't do it....," Hero bets, MP raises, BN calls...?

15:1? Rest of hand standard?

[KitCloudkicker]

i guess common wisdom says call and lose.

i think you're beat here like 100% however.

[jstill]

I think u lose like 19:1 but i call cuz its barely a mistake and people are douchbags live, especially those that talk alot and especially those that talk alot during hands. He could think your pause was weakness and u mite actually fold in a big pot for one bet, so they dont expect u to auto bet call, in which case maybe 2nd level thinking may make it a fold. Remember he only has to make u fold 1 in 7 to turn a profit so if 99 Jx are in ur range and may fold...

[SNOWBALL]

Ir's tempting to call on the river, because if button has you beat, I dunno what he has you beat with. I'm guessing he has an 8 though. Even terribly loose players usually need to have something real when it's 2 cold to them on the river. MP can't really decide all of a sudden to bluff 2 players, can he? And if he is valueraising with a worse hand, what is it?

The trick to making these folds it to view the situation as a parlay. I think you have like a 10% max chance than MP is FOS here, which means that you need to be a 63% favorite over button's range to call. Personally, I think my 10% estimate is too high.

[SNOWBALL]

[ QUOTE ]

I think u lose like 19:1 but i call cuz its barely a mistake and people are douchbags live, especially those that talk alot and especially those that talk alot during hands. He could think your pause was weakness and u mite actually fold in a big pot for one bet, so they dont expect u to auto bet call, in which case maybe 2nd level thinking may make it a fold. Remember he only has to make u fold 1 in 7 to turn a profit so if 99 Jx are in ur range and may fold...


[/ QUOTE ]

MP is the one raising, not button.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]

The trick to making these folds it to view the situation as a parlay. I think you have like a 10% max chance than MP is FOS here, which means that you need to be a 63% favorite over button's range to call. Personally, I think my 10% estimate is too high.

[/ QUOTE ]

how did you arrive at the 63%?

[SNOWBALL]

63%*10%>1/16 (pot odds)

[earlytimes1]

I think hand's totally standard up to river, and I think you're beat almost 100% of the time.

[Ricks]

[ QUOTE ]
63%*10%>1/16 (pot odds)

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice. I guess it wouldn't be difficult to do this at the table. 6.25*10.