Does this apply in stud hi tourney?

docholiday420 · #1 10-08-2007, 06:49 PM

In no-limit tourney there is a philosophy that left with only a certian amount you should go all in, because now when u win it has to be worth it.

Ok so in stud is that a similar idea. For instance I am at 1000/2000 level. I started with 5600. Bet 1000 on third, a thousand on 4th and now on fifth street I had aces up, but a player pairs his door card five. I feel he has trip fives, but also felt compelled to call it down because with only 3600 left and going up to 1500/3000 level in two minutes, also 10 players were left and the first three only in the money so I had to win this hand. The chance he may have a concealed pair instead, making like nines up or even on a draw, I could be throwing away a winner I can't afford to throw away. So I raised back his first bet for everything I had on fifth.

Who would fold on fifth because 3600 is worth more in stud than 3600 at the 1000/2000 level in hold em?

And who would have said I just had to call it down because 3600 is not worth what I could possibly win?

PoorLawyer · #2 10-08-2007, 07:52 PM

No choice but to get your last chips in; even if he has trips you can still win. With that few chips left it will be very tough to fold your way into 3rd. You would have to be something like 95% sure he had trips and your cards totally dead to drop Aces up with basically no chips left.

docholiday420 · #3 10-08-2007, 08:15 PM

thanx these are the decisions that keep me up at night, lol. Beause in tough decision I trust my gut and that is a far winning percentage. But in this situation My gut says he has trips, and then my gut says u cant fold this, and leave so many little chips left? So my intuition is telling me two different actions, call/fold. In a cash game I would have folded this. I was that sure he had trips, and I don't go against what I believe. I think intuition makes all the difference. But keeping 3600 and starting the 1500/3000 level where if I won this with 7000 alreayd in the pot i would have like 14000.

Anybody disagree I still not sure with either decision.

docholiday420 · #4 10-08-2007, 08:17 PM

Are you saying though that if his trip 5 were all on the board I should have still called. I would have folded then, it was the chance of him not having it that made me call.

RustyBrooks · #5 10-08-2007, 08:39 PM

It would be nice if you could post the actual hand info here, unless if it was live I guess you don't have a HH.

There are some variables that make this a little harder to deal with...

* Were 5s totally live prior to his 2nd 5?
* are all your full house outs live?
* Do you have any backdoor draws to a straight or a flush?

Without knowing more information your odds are about 4:1 if he does have trips and you're a nice favorite if he has a worse two pair. There's probably what, 6000 in the pot with antes, bringin and bets up to here? So if you can get it all in now you're getting 96:36

If I was *sure* he had trips I might take this gamble.

If you're not sure he has trips (and you can't be) then let's say that you will win 20% if he has trips and probably 70% if he doesn't.

So then your overall odds are:
X*.2 + (1-X)*.7

If there's a 75% chance or less he has trips this means you can get it all in and you'll win half the time. I think odds he has trips are probably less than this. This is kind of a rough estimate due to not enough information...

docholiday420 · #6 10-08-2007, 08:50 PM

all cards are live, mine and his. I knew he had it, pretty much, it was live. Thats the thing do I want to put my life on a 20%chance or just take my 3600. Is that enough to stick around in a stud tourney, or is it so little I should just hope this hand pans out?

RustyBrooks · #7 10-08-2007, 09:03 PM

If you're good enough to know he had trip fives 100% of the time, and not 75% of the time, then you don't need advice [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Time to get it all in.

RustyBrooks · #8 10-08-2007, 09:27 PM

And personally, being a 4:1 dog getting 3:1 odds is not so bad in a situation like this. Which is why I'd probably call even if he turned his hand over. Get a *little* lucky now or get super lucky later to turn your 1bb into something worthwhile.

docholiday420 · #9 10-08-2007, 09:51 PM

Ok i twist to this question, what if I had like 12 BB and still feel he has a set of fives, do i call also or save my chips?

RustyBrooks · #10 10-08-2007, 10:01 PM

Well, the formula becomes more complicated because you can't get all in, so your real effective odds may become worse. *However* you now have the option to try to get some information, which you don't have when you only have BB. Your chances of winning the hand can still be obtained with the same formula.

Honestly, I don't know enough about stud, or your opponent's tendencies to answer this question if you have 12bb. The question becomes so much simpler when you can get all in, because there are no future decisions to make, and calculating your pot odds is very straightforward. You can't get outplayed, also, which is good. With more money, you could make a good call on 5th and fold a later street.

Gut feelings aside, how often do you think he has trip fives there instead of, say, 2 pair or a pair and a draw? I mean, I can tell you mathematically, but how often does he start, in your opinion, with 5x5 and not, say, TT5 or 995 or something? Doesn't it seem more likely he has a medium pair in the hole and not split fives? How big was his stack? Does he seem likely to gamble a little (I really don't know, is it reasonable to call one opponent in a tournament with split fives, good kicker, live cards?).

There's so much information missing here, also, like the other upcards, what position you bet from, how many people were behind him and what their upcards were. Was this an online tournament, do you have the hh?