Is there really any value in calling here?

[BackdoorQuads]

Okay, after some thinking, here's what I've come up with...

Benefits of just calling the CO's raise: We're in position with a hand that's beating his range. If one or both of the blinds call, we probably get paid off more often when we hit our set. If one of them raises, we see what CO does first, and we can fold if he gets really aggro. Also, there's a good chance that we WILL have implied odds to call a 3-bet from one of the blinds. (These last two points aren't all that relevant, for the most part, but they happen occasionally, specifically, this hand.)

Benefits of 3-betting: We're in position with a hand that's probably beating the CO's range. We can probably fold to a re-raise (though a call doesn't seem very horrible from the way this thread is going...). We take down a bigger pot on the flop when our c-bet works. It's easier to stack CO when we hit our set and he hits also.

That said, I like a call better, not because of results, but because of the word "predictable." I take that to mean you'll know where you stand on the flop. If he c-bets often, I think you'd be ready to raise most flops and take it down there. If he rarely c-bets, you take it when he checks. If he c-bets a tricky amount of the time, then I like a pre-flop 3-bet more (but I don't interpret "predictable" players to c-bet a tricky amount of the time).

As played, I think BB is a little too short to make a call for set value very +EV because you're not guaranteed to stack him when you hit your set. (KK on A9x board...)

[godofPOPOV]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is calling for set value here +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is $19.75 in the pot. Your opponent has has $27.55 left. So you are calling $4.75 to win 47.30.

You will miss 89% of the time. So 89 times you lose $4.75 for $422.75.

You will hit 11% of the time, but still lose occasionally to a bigger set or some other odd suckout. 11 * 47.30 = $520.00 - the times you lose. When you lose, you lose your stack. Looks coin-flippish/neutral EV.

Example flops and your equity...

Board: Ac 9d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.716% 78.72% 00.00% 49095 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 21.284% 21.28% 00.00% 13275 0.00 { JJ+ }


Board: 2d 7c 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.010% 91.01% 00.00% 64872 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 08.990% 08.99% 00.00% 6408 0.00 { JJ+ }


Board: Ac Kc 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.965% 60.97% 00.00% 32592 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 39.035% 39.03% 00.00% 20868 0.00 { JJ+ }


I am at work so I don't have time for any more math here, but it looks so close, I'd probably just fold and wait for a better spot. I don't like flipping.

I'd rather outplay the BB by stealing his loose calls by c-betting flops and by the fact that his raises turn his cards face up allowing you to play optimally against him (so far, given his small sample size). You will do better to set mine when he raises pre-flop and you just call with your PP (and maybe an additional caller or two).

If he's already played half his hands I'm guessing you are going to see more of it and he's going to be giving away his dough and going too far when he does finally get around to raising.

Disclaimer: Math probably not perfect but reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]


for the sake of understanding the EV calculations and the math,
if you won 100% of the time you hit your set, so 11% of the time you won his stack 100% of the time - it would be very EV+ right?

[Speedlimits]

Fold to 4bet.

[corsakh]

Call, you stack him if you hit 100%. Its more of a metagame decisions though to show that you dont 3bet with total rubbish and not gonna fold to small 4bets.

[ILikeTrees]

i don't think so. despite the money you lose in the heavy call, you're not even guaranteed to stack the guy if you hit your set, not to mention its very possible to end up in a set-over-set situation, and then you lose your stack.

[Capone]

yeh fold to the 4bet.

[Triggerle]

To everyone who says a call is +EV (this excludes the guys who say call for metagame), please read the link I posted above and refute that if you will. DBitel really did the maths there and maths>rough guesses.

[Antinome]

1. Villain range is AK,QQ+ IMO.

2. The upper bound on my odds is my hot and cold equity, which is 36%, need ~2:1

3. The lower bound is my dbietel set stacking odds versus wide range which is 18:1.

4. The raw odds are 11.7:1

5. If we could perfectly distinguish between the three categories of hands villain has on the flop (AK,QQ-KK,AA) we could valuepush 99 vs AK 29%* of the time (at 75% equity) and bluff the KK,QQ 9%** when an A falls (with a lot of fold equity, needs to be better that 60%) when we miss a 9- 88.3% of the time.

The better we get at this and more importantly the worse our opponent is at betting -with us in position to observe and act on that - the more value we can extract when we miss and the lighter and closer to our h+c equity we can call preflop.

Suppose with this guy we could positively identify AK on a non A or K flop an 30% of the time the situation occurs. How much would that be worth preflop?

.883(we miss 9)*0.29(situation occurance rate)*0.3(detection rate)*0.75(equity)=5.7%

Add that to my lower bound, dbietel's 18:1, 5.2%

and we get 10.96%, call it 9:1, well, we couldn't call there.

Add it to the natural 11.7% and we get 17.4% or like 7:1 which we have.

That's my thinking behind a call. Doing the math makes me suspect it is pretty marginal in this spot.


*(Combinatorics 16/34)*(61%No A or K on flop)=29%
**(Combinatorics 12/34)*(26% A on flop)=9%

[bored]

I would fold this to BB's raise. We don't have the odds to set mine and the hand is going to be hard to play on any flop that doesn't contain a 9.

Anyone who thinks about just calling CO's raise is being terribly results oriented.

If the OP hand posted

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $45.50
BB: $39.30
UTG: $49.25
CO: $36.05
Hero (BTN): $66.70

Reads: CO is 60/35/3 predicatable spewtard.

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.75, Hero ???

who would think that smooth calling would be a good idea?