50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?

[Babalatexi]

I'm pretty sure villain will call a push with any set, flush or straight (although a straight is pretty darn unlikely), his stats indicate that he's not too good and generally these players don't like folding when they're strong. So, if we want to slowplay, we might get a little more value out of 2p (45 is the only plausible 2p hand) or a bluff but ~40% of the time the river will become a tough decision for us or villain (4th diamond or board pairing). Actually, his turn c/r doesn't make much sense unless he is very strong/bluffing, I don't see him c/ring a TPTK hand here.

Hence, I push the turn.

[AZplaya]

Gotta shove here, so many hands that call a shove will shut down on a scary river.

[whyzze]

call is fine imo.

bluffs and Qx hands are a significant part of his range. OOP im definately shoving. But i think he can fold alot of hands to a shove that he puts more money in on the river with. I think the EV we gain by peeling, even with the chance of a diamond killing the action, is greater than the EV of shoving. imo, if hes calling a shove, theres very few hands that a diamond would make c/f in his range.

[AZplaya]

meh I disagree. There's 8 diamonds left in the deck, plus 12 cards that pair the board. Thats 20 cards that either kill our action or possible kill our hand.

[billip62]

riv play:

diamond hits - small value bet, say $25 and who knows if a set would call a shove on the turn they might call 25 on the riv. this is the only senario where real value is lost and with only 8 diamonds in the deck I'll take that chance.

board pairs - still way a head of alot of his range, but sure, could be crushed. Again if a set was calling a shove on the turn then we lost the hand regardless so what is everyone so upset about. I'm calling any bet after the board pairs which, unless it's all in then I probably saved a few buck from the turn shove. but whatever, calling on the turn commits to an all in on the riv.

no scare card hits: odds of getting at LEAST one more sizable bet or value town out of a worse hand is bascially a sure thing.

The real money maker by playing this line is that if the villian is bluffing you probably get another bet out of him on the riv 50+% of the time.

shoving the turn pushs out everything assuming the player is half resonable.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]

board pairs - still way a head of alot of his range, but sure, could be crushed. Again if a set was calling a shove on the turn then we lost the hand regardless so what is everyone so upset about.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not thinking this through completely. If a set calls a shove on the turn, he's making a mistake. If the board pairs and he gets it in on the river instead, he's not making a mistake. Even donks can get away from a set on a 4 diamond board. The idea is, you want his money to get in while you're ahead (obv) and you don't want to give him the opportunity to get away from his hand.

[Xanthro]

I'd shove because as others have said, too many cards kill your action on the river, you are OOP, and he's either got a monster here or air. A monster will call, and the air won't bet latter anyway.

You could bet $50, giving him 3-1 to call, but what calls this that doesn't call the push?

[slickterp]

[ QUOTE ]
Make it $45-$50 to go. The line villain is taking is usually a strong hand, probably a set or a straight, just raise now, a diamond will kill your action for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, this another diamond will kill u.

[billip62]

anyway, I'm going to let this one go, but needless to say I'd like to take the chance that the board pairs on the riv in the hopes that I can squeeze some extra value from a hand that would fold the shove on the turn.

To put into perspective how close I think this is, when I was at the casino playing 1/2NL I flopped a straight with 89s in a family pot from the SB, check/raised the flop, bet called the shove on the turn, but that was with 100BB stacks.

The reason I'm advocating the call here is because the stakes just seem deep enough that the ship on the turn is going to fold everything.

[TX86s]

i wanna crunch sm numbers to see whether to call or shove the turn... just wanna know one thg... if river pairs the board and villain bets abt 1/2 pot (size reasonable?)... do we just call, or is our stack goin in either way? do we ever fold if villain pots the river?