1/2 Stud High: 4AA 5th Street Decision

[CarlosChadha]

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Most players dont bet a small two pair on the river often enough when checked to. Against this player it is right to bet sixth (unless he catches a three flush or open pair), IMO, then check seventh unless you improve.

In general, on sixth, it is better to bet if you know you will call and dont fear a raise.

On seventh, I am inclined to bet 2 pair or better and call a raise (unless i know the player or have a read) .

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Yes, in GENERAL it is correct to bet instead of check calling if a raise is unlikely. However, as the preceding discussion has shown, this is CLEARLY not a general situation.

Lets see how we do with your line vs various hands (assuming he checks two pair UI on the river) and how my line does:

-Opponent misses flush draw and hero is UI: both lines loss 1 bet
-he makes a flush on river and hero is UI: your line -2BBs, my line -1BB
-hero improves on river, he makes flush: your line -3BBs, my line -1BB
-hero improves on river, he rags river: your line +1BB, my line +0 BB
-he has 2 pair, neither improve: both lines lose 1B, if op bets river, your line loses 2Bs
-he has 2p, hero improves: both lines +2Bs
-he has 2 p and fills:both lines lose 3Bs

Throw in the fact that our kickers are dead, making it less likely for us to improve, and it is very clear that check calling 6th and then playing the river I a suggest is best.

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OK, first we have only one side card gone (the six). Fours and tens are live. He has three flush cards that are gone.
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he makes a flush on river and hero is UI: your line -2BBs, my line -1BB

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This analysis makes no sense to me. Do you check down AA from fourth if the guy has a flush draw? After all you will save bets when he makes his draw.

So, I charge him to draw out and take the chance that he has two pairs (in which case, I will draw out on him). Note that on fifth I have 9 cards that make me 2 pair or better, and on sixth I have 12 cards (if i catch live) to make 2 pair or better. He has 6 clubs he can catch and a Jack (giving him JJ with a flush draw, his most likely hand) to beat our aces up.

I like betting.

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You are correct about both the hero and the villain's cards being slightly dead. I think your line would more closer to being correct (but still sub optimal) if the hero's card were totally live.

You have to call a bet on the river with unimproved Aces if you bet 6th to defend against a desperation bluff whereas by checking 6th you know where you are at on the river, so you DON'T have to defend against a bluff

Keep in mind that his MOST likely hand is two pair, NOT the flush draw. I agree that your line is slightly stronger than my line vs the flush draw. But my line is much strong than yours against the most likely hand of 2 pair. Online players will frequently make aggressive value bets on the river with 2 pair, whereas live, they hardly ever do. You line would be okay live against certain players

[ACPlayer]

I pretty much only play stud live, so my comments may not be useful online. You can judge that better.

Incidentally, I dont understand (live or not) how, if you know he has a flush draw on sixth and bets seventh, you gain from the check on sixth. He could still be bluffing and you have to decide whether to call or not. The check-check on sixth has done little for you, except lose some value from the call u would have got.

I am betting aces up anyway on the river -- but then I can spew [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Now to some sims:

On sixth we are a solid favorite against a 4 flush and pair hand

pokenum -7s jc 7c 6c js 5c qd - 4s ac ah 6h tc 5d / ad 3s 2s 3d 2d 6d 9h jh qc 7h
7-card Stud Hi: 870 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jc 7c 6c 5c Qd 338 38.85 532 61.15 0 0.00 0.389
4s Ac Tc 5d Ah 6h 532 61.15 338 38.85 0 0.00 0.611

It is upto us to put the bet in the pot in this case.
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and we are a solid underdog to Js up:
pokenum -7s jc 5s 6c js 5c qd - 4s ac ah 6h tc 5d / ad 3s 2s 3d 2d 6d 9h jh qc 7h
7-card Stud Hi: 870 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 5s Jc 6c 5c Qd 626 71.95 244 28.05 0 0.00 0.720
4s Ac Tc 5d Ah 6h 244 28.05 626 71.95 0 0.00 0.280

And one bet is going in the pot in this way as well.

If we check sixth the money does not go in when we are ahead and goes in when we are behind. No me gusta mucho.

[CarlosChadha]

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I pretty much only play stud live, so my comments may not be useful online. You can judge that better.

Incidentally, I dont understand (live or not) how, if you know he has a flush draw on sixth and bets seventh, you gain from the check on sixth. He could still be bluffing and you have to decide whether to call or not. The check-check on sixth has done little for you, except lose some value from the call u would have got.

I am betting aces up anyway on the river -- but then I can spew [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Now to some sims:

On sixth we are a solid favorite against a 4 flush and pair hand

pokenum -7s jc 7c 6c js 5c qd - 4s ac ah 6h tc 5d / ad 3s 2s 3d 2d 6d 9h jh qc 7h
7-card Stud Hi: 870 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jc 7c 6c 5c Qd 338 38.85 532 61.15 0 0.00 0.389
4s Ac Tc 5d Ah 6h 532 61.15 338 38.85 0 0.00 0.611

It is upto us to put the bet in the pot in this case.
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and we are a solid underdog to Js up:
pokenum -7s jc 5s 6c js 5c qd - 4s ac ah 6h tc 5d / ad 3s 2s 3d 2d 6d 9h jh qc 7h
7-card Stud Hi: 870 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 5s Jc 6c 5c Qd 626 71.95 244 28.05 0 0.00 0.720
4s Ac Tc 5d Ah 6h 244 28.05 626 71.95 0 0.00 0.280

And one bet is going in the pot in this way as well.

If we check sixth the money does not go in when we are ahead and goes in when we are behind. No me gusta mucho.

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Please reread my other posts...I have already explained most of the questions you asked.

Thanks for the sims. As we can see from them, when WE are ahead we only 61% equity so we are not giving up THAT much when he checks behind.

The key points to checking 6th is NOT that it is better if he has a flush draw (it is worse) but that his MOST LIKELY hand is two pair. Checking 6th is better against the COMBINED probability of his entire distribution of hands, because it allows you to know exactly where you are at on the river.

[ACPlayer]

OK. On reflection, I get your river point, sort of;

If he bets sixth we can fold seventh if we dont improve and perhaps raise if we improve. Of course, live many players will not bet two pair again.

I still think it is bad that on sixth our money goes in only when we are behind and does not go in when we are favorite. I think the showdown will be one or two bets. One on sixth for sure (we make sure of that) and maybe one on seventh if he bets or we make Aces up. At least live the bluff raisers on the river are pretty few and far between.

[CarlosChadha]

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OK. On reflection, I get your river point, sort of;

If he bets sixth we can fold seventh if we dont improve and perhaps raise if we improve. Of course, live many players will not bet two pair again.

I still think it is bad that on sixth our money goes in only when we are behind and does not go in when we are favorite. I think the showdown will be one or two bets. One on sixth for sure (we make sure of that) and maybe one on seventh if he bets or we make Aces up. At least live the bluff raisers on the river are pretty few and far between.

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You are correct. Against most live player who play very straight forward on the river, this play loses most of its value, and betting might be better. If you can reliably check fold on the river with a pair of aces after betting 6th (which you can often do live), then betting 6th is clearly better.

[dsaxton]

Carlos, I think your primary argument for check-calling 6th was that you learn whether he has two pair or a flush draw, which allows you to save a bet on the river if he bets both streets. But, you also claimed that he will check behind two pair on the river. If this is a case, then a bluff is more likely since he is now checking more hands that beat aces rather than betting them, and because the hands that he would be betting in this situation aren't very likely anyways. In that case, could it not be correct to pay off in on the river anyways after check-calling 6th?

[CarlosChadha]

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Carlos, I think your primary argument for check-calling 6th was that you learn whether he has two pair or a flush draw, which allows you to save a bet on the river if he bets both streets. But, you also claimed that he will check behind two pair on the river. If this is a case, then a bluff is more likely since he is now checking more hands that beat aces rather than betting them, and because the hands that he would be betting in this situation aren't very likely anyways. In that case, could it not be correct to pay off in on the river anyways after check-calling 6th?

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Yes, that is the main argument. I didn't claim that he would usually check behind on the river with two pair. I said that online people will often bet 2 pair when checked to on the river, but live they sometimes don't. If the hero plans on paying off the river no matter what, then he has to bet on 6th.

[ACPlayer]

I am wondering why you think his most likely hand is two pair. Is that from a Bayesian count of starting hands?

[CarlosChadha]

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I am wondering why you think his most likely hand is two pair. Is that from a Bayesian count of starting hands?

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No, it is because that is normally the only hand that people donk bet 5th st. with in a 4 way pot when they have a ragged board and it looks like there is a guy with aces sitting right behind him. They would usually check call or maybe check raise with a flush draw and check raise with trips.

[ACPlayer]

OK. Makes sense.