Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play

[Beachman42]

Flat call & play position? I don't like the shove in a sat.

[Nez477]

I open fold this and don't think twice about it.

Look at the positioning of the table. UTG (you say is a good 2+2er, so what) is very short and has the big stack in the BB. He's going to have to steal and steal lots in order to make you uncomfortable about your stack. MP has a decent enough stack, and he obviously doesn't understand the satellite implications here so he very well could be pushing on UTG's BB as well.

There comes a point where you need to stop worrying about accumulating chips and wait. This is that point.

If you somehow become the shorty, then you can push/raise when necessary and work from there. But I think your play in 300% worse than his.

Brad

[AlcateL]

deleted by me

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
MP has a decent enough stack, and he obviously doesn't understand the satellite implications here so he very well could be pushing on UTG's BB as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Silly question but how do we know MP doesn't understand satellite implications well?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Flat call & play position? I don't like the shove in a sat.

[/ QUOTE ]
Position? You are the SB.

I would fold and wait. I don't mind raising, open pushing, restealing with junkier hands in earlier position later on if necessary.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
The blinds aren't big enough to risk running into a hand or an idiot.
I might have raised 2xBB to take the blinds if he had junk and folded to a re raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really dislike making a 2x/3x/4xbb raise here (but I'm sure it's probably better than doing what I did; having said that, I'm almost positive a min-raise/3xbb raise is -tEV and -$EV here). I'd open fold before I'd min-raise, but I'm willing to hear how others feel.

[0evg0]

I'd just complete.

[betgo]

If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

[PepZ]

[ QUOTE ]
If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. BB has an incentive to allow you to lose the tournament. He has enough chips to make this happen with reasonable hands.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Minraising just feels like a chip leak to me, particularly if he's not playing correctly. He's got a monster stack and he's almost certainly calling with any 2, which means I'm now building a pot out of position with a medicore hand that I'll almost certainly have to lay down on 85%+ of flops when I don't spike an 8 (and even on some when I do but the flop comes three suited and/or is highly coordinated, etc.).

If he's playing correctly, it doesn't seem to matter if I min-raise or push, right? And if he's playing incorrectly, minraising just allows him the chance to play perfectly.