Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play

[DVaut1]

6th place gets a booby prize; top 5 get a seat in the Sunday $650 WSOP Super Sat.; so who made the bigger mistake, me or the BB villain? Did I make a mistake? Did he? Does the position of the short-stack make a difference?

The only real read here is that I've been very aggressive stealing from BB; he hasn't played back at me yet since we got to the FT.

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO (t8415)
Button (t12053)
Hero (t9037)
BB (t22730)
UTG (t3180)
MP (t12085)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds</font>, Hero raises to t9012</font>, BB calls t8612.

Final Pot: t17749

BB turns over K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[0evg0]

Please tell me you won or else I will be sad.

I'm not an expert on Sat strategy, but I don't think your play was that bad. His of course sucks donkey balls.

[adanthar]

In a vacuum, your play is worse than his. He takes his expectation from 99.9% to 95% by calling. You take yours from 80-90% to some number way less than that by pushing.

I mean, of course he should fold, but when he's not gonna, your push really sucks.

[DVaut1]

I should also note short-stack is a very good 2p2er.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
In a vacuum, your play is worse than his. He takes his expectation from 99.9% to 95% by calling. You take yours from 80-90% to some number way less than that by pushing.

I mean, of course he should fold, but when he's not gonna, your push really sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everything else equal, what if his stack is say, 13k instead of 22k? Clearly he's made a much bigger mistake if he calls. But have I still made a mistake?

Similarly, all else equal, what if short-stack is on my immediate right (and I know short-stack is a very good player)?

[0evg0]

I was hoping adanthar would respond. Why do you feel he has anywhere near 80-90% expectation of winning here?

[ciaran]

[ QUOTE ]
I was hoping adanthar would respond. Why do you feel he has anywhere near 80-90% expectation of winning here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about the percentages quoted, but there are two stacks shorter than Hero, the blinds aren't killer and the biggest stack at the table is in position to abuse the short stack should he choose to (not that he should necessarily, but he did just call with KJo here).

[0evg0]

Oh [censored], misread UTG has having the CL instead of like 8xbb. Yeah, your shove is mucho not bueno. I thought you were like tied for last place.

[betgo]

If you want to open push, wait until the blinds are higher and your stack is lower, so it isn't such an overbet. I guess you justcan't fold 88 period.

[hyde]

The blinds aren't big enough to risk running into a hand or an idiot.
I might have raised 2xBB to take the blinds if he had junk and folded to a re raise.