Al Mirpuri: The Draw Poker Stats

[Al Mirpuri]

Okay, I have played 52467 hands of draw poker at the $1/$2 level. It is a five handed game with two blinds, 50c/$1. (obviously, the table is not always full.) I am winning at a rate of 1.49 bb per 100 hands. This has declined sharply as the draw poker fish get to know me and fear me. They just won't play with me. The draw poker pool is not big anyway on Paradise Poker. During these 52K+ hands I have had two downswings of 100 big bets and one downswing of 150 big bets. I am a recreational player so it is not a case of making my nut but obviously if the money won is a reflection of my ability then I want it to accurately reflect it.

Tell me what you think of the win rate (and I am especially interested in what anyone playing on Paradise Poker or the other skins that service Sports Bet have to say.

NB: the winrate was a lot higher yesterday. I have had cooler of 50 big bets only today.

[AceOfClubs]

I have 6BB at 1-2$ tables. I'm pretty sure that 1,5BB it's too low for those limits.

[Idolatrous]

$1/2 can be a lot harder than higher limits simply because you have a large number of players in each pot attempting to suck out. I never play lower than $3/6 personally (and I play on Ongame) but I can tell you I am a losing 3/6 player, but heavy winner higher. Not 100% sure if this is simply due to cards that I have had at 3/6 or if it's something to do with the different play there from higher limits. But I find lower limits to be much more difficult to win regularly than higher limits.

[Al Mirpuri]

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I have 6BB at 1-2$ tables. I'm pretty sure that 1,5BB it's too low for those limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are about 150 draw players playing at Paradise Poker on any given week night. Since the banning of the US players Paradise has died. There are upto 3000 players on any given week night playing at Paradise. I think the stats have a lot to do with the fact that the games are tough. There is very little in way of passing trade. There are just not enough fish at Paradise playing draw poker.

I am going to only play week-ends from now on which will free up time to do other things with my life and give me a better winrate (and thus more enjoyable experience - assuming winning to be more enjoyable than losing - from the game).

[Murakawa]

I was running 8BB/100 for several thousand hands then -3bb/100 for several more, with swings in between of course. I'd say I'm about 5bb/100 at limit 1/2-3/6 (and much higher at 5/10 where we all stay until the live one leaves and then we all leave, though I rarely play that high and if so only for less than an hour). Yesterday I had a 150 big blind 2 hour upswing. Draw is not hold 'em by a longshot, but I hear many people saying they have 90% winning sessions and nearly 10BB/100 and I think it is exaggerated or they don't play nearly as many hands as I do to see that kind of stuff that happens. The math is against it, but sometimes a full house can cracked twice in a hour by someone who draws three! I've seen it happen and I've done it!

Ace of Clubs, what site are you playing at? I bet it's ongame. I don't think you're lying or anything, just curious as to where you are going and the number of hands.

Al Mirpuri, play at another site if you can or have someone look at your game, I'm pretty sure that you're good so probably just change sites.

[Al Mirpuri]

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Al Mirpuri, play at another site if you can or have someone look at your game, I'm pretty sure that you're good so probably just change sites.

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It is kind of you to say so Murakawa. The site is tough. No doubt about it. I grossly overestimated the number of draw players most week nights. It is more like 50 players rather than the 150 players in my original. Moreover, these players are split between A7 draw (short deck game) and regular draw.

I should switch sites but I just cannot be bothered to put more money online or move it about as I am only recreational player. However, I will probably stick to playing weekends only when the games are at their softest.

[Murakawa]

Also 52,000 hands is enough to reflect your skill, but it's not that much. The variance in 1/2 can be quite deadly. I think you can make more bb/100 (there are more chances at positive equity plays I think) than higher limits but sometimes it takes a very long time to show itself.

[AceOfClubs]

[ QUOTE ]

Ace of Clubs, what site are you playing at? I bet it's ongame. I don't think you're lying or anything, just curious as to where you are going and the number of hands.


[/ QUOTE ]
I'm playing at Ongame.I count my winrate in BB per hour. And I have like 20K hands at this moment.

[bigpooch]

This winrate seems a bit low, but the reason could be as
you stated. In addition,

a) you are probably not selective about which tables to play
b) you may not have many player notes on your opponents
c) there may not be very many weak players at your tables

I think a good winrate should be between 2 and 4 big bets
per hour, but don't forget that there are still some big
swings if you play bigger than 2-4. Unfortunately, the
drawback about playing on IPN is that you can't see how many
cards each of your opponents are drawing in the chatbox, so
it's harder to multitable (but not impossible: just remember
at most a four digit number for each table; besides, the
maximum you can play is only five, but there are rarely
even four decent tables to play at in regular limit draw).

[Al Mirpuri]

[ QUOTE ]
This winrate seems a bit low, but the reason could be as
you stated. In addition,

a) you are probably not selective about which tables to play
b) you may not have many player notes on your opponents
c) there may not be very many weak players at your tables

I think a good winrate should be between 2 and 4 big bets
per hour, but don't forget that there are still some big
swings if you play bigger than 2-4. Unfortunately, the
drawback about playing on IPN is that you can't see how many
cards each of your opponents are drawing in the chatbox, so
it's harder to multitable (but not impossible: just remember
at most a four digit number for each table; besides, the
maximum you can play is only five, but there are rarely
even four decent tables to play at in regular limit draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the post bigpooch.

A) I do not practise game selection in that I am only willing to play $1/$2 until my bankroll is bigger though technically I am already over bankrolled for $1/$2. Moreover, except for Saturdays there is only one $1/$2 game on Paradise poker. There about 50 draw players on weekdays.

B) On the contrary, I have extensive notes on my opponents. I make some very nuanced plays against these players.

C) There are few weak players weekdays. I am only playing weekends from now on.

Importantly, I have discovered a leak in my game when playing heads up and as first to act as small blind versus the big blind.

Stopping the leak and playing only weekends should take my winrate back where it should be.