Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[NigelSmith]

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AK
8 possible hands
4 spades hands

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Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

Making it 55.5555555555 (etc) he has a spade.

Similarly for AQs when you expand his hand range.

[marchron]

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1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a club?

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All-Blacks: Not just New Zealand's Rugby Team — it beats an overpair now, too! <font color="white">Countdown to Ozi [censored] up my layout again in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .</font>

[marchron]

Damn, late.

[McNeese72]

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1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a club ?


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You do mean a spade, right?

Doc

[fretelöo]

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1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?

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Levelling or something? Odds are 50% obv. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?

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Assuming he realizes that you don't have a spade and figures you'll give up some time if he barrels twice - yes.

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3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?

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No, they both suck. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] But given that even a bad tag will find a good fold every now and then, I'd c/call and hope he's in a bluffing mood.

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4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

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Levelling again? Obv. that changes nothing. % of him holding a single spade is still ~50%. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[britspin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?

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Levelling or something? Odds are 50% obv. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]



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Doesn't the fact that his AA hand has to include a spade change that? Supposes it also affects his AK range too.

I dunno maffs tho. Will hav to show workings.

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?

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Levelling or something? Odds are 50% obv. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]



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Doesn't the fact that his AA hand has to include a spade change that? Supposes it also affects his AK range too.

I dunno maffs tho. Will hav to show workings.

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Yup, a bit too rash there. Point is that for every hand that's unaffected by the board or our hand, the % is 50% (TT-KK/KQ etc.). For the other AA and AK/AQ, things change a bit to the worse: 5 of the remaining 8 AK combos have a spade (A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K:any:, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), same for AQ. However, that only changes 50% to 62%. So if you include QQ etc. where it's exactly 50%, for all practical purposes of "live decision making" 50% is still good enough.

[36CampusAve]

:grunch:

Ok, here we go:

1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%.

2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to
Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB
EV = +6.177BB
Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time)
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB
c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB
EV = +6.062BB
So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down.

3. Is b/f better than c/c?
No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB.

4. Wider range?
Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here
EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything.

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
:grunch:

Ok, here we go:

1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%.

2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to
Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB
EV = +6.177BB
Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time)
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB
c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB
EV = +6.062BB
So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down.

3. Is b/f better than c/c?
No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB.

4. Wider range?
Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here
EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything.

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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I havent checked the numbers in detail (14/27 and the extra range not changing much is right though) but in general this looks good and I agree with the sentiment so obviously Ill say Well done. nice grunch.

kudos to Mav too

[Smurph64]

I am curious what is your record versus this guy, since this a read dependant move based on the post?

Let me see some other hands with this guy to see his betting line here, ie 4 flush boards and/or overpairs.

It seems to me something is fishy in Denmark.