NFL Week 10 player props thread

[silentbob]

Nothing on Bodog yet, but I've made one bet already:

Philip Rivers NO interception in the first half at +125 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay). Of all the NFL player props that I've bet, this one is among the most puzzling. In his 27 games as a starter thus far, Rivers has thrown a pick in 15 of them. And in those 15 games, his pick occurred in the second half in 6 of them. I seriously doubt that the "true" odds of Rivers throwing a first half pick is 22 percent, but one would have to think that at worst it is 50/50. For that reason alone, taking this prop at positive odds would seem to be +EV. But I can't quantify the edge to any degree of certainty, so one unit will suffice. FWIW, the Colts have picked off passes in 7 out of 8 games this season, but the picks happened in the first half in only 3 of 7. Also, the picks that happened in two games came against backups (Gradkowski and Q. Gray). Again, I doubt that Rivers is predisposed to throw an interception in the first half, or that the Colts are predisposed to intercept passes in the first half. Who knows. Like I said, +125 is good enough for me. How the yes was set at -155 is completely baffling.

Anyone want to take a stab at why the no might be a bad bet?

YTD: 25-17, +6.67 units