$119 FTP Interesting bubble hand

[z32fanatic]

As you guys know I don't post hands very often, but this was a really interesting hand in my opinion. The most important part to me is rosedog's stack (he's utg). I like my play here in the BB but I think I also like the AJo call here with a thinking BB player. The reason it's hard to pull off this play successfully as the SB is because this situation essentially never comes up, and you have to have a lot of trust in your read on the BB.

After I shoved someone asked me if I thought the AJ call was good, and I initially said no because I don't remember the last time I squeezed in this situation without a real hand, and admittedly I was 1 tabling when I made this play, whereas I would almost always default fold while 10 tabling.

Thoughts on my play and the SB play?

Full Tilt Poker Game #4009118809: $110 + $9 Sit & Go (Turbo) (30475106), Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:33:18 ET - 2007/10/29
Seat 1: z32fanatic (5,515)
Seat 2: Rosedog (1,885)
Seat 4: ftbplaya_69 (3,145)
Seat 8: Jawarhalo (2,955)
Jawarhalo posts the small blind of 150
z32fanatic posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to z32fanatic [8c 7h]
Rosedog folds
ftbplaya_69 raises to 900
Jawarhalo calls 750
z32fanatic raises to 5,515, and is all in
ftbplaya_69 has 15 seconds left to act
ftbplaya_69 folds
Jawarhalo calls 2,055, and is all in
z32fanatic shows [8c 7h]
Jawarhalo shows [Jc Ah]
Uncalled bet of 2,560 returned to z32fanatic

[blackize]

Your play should depend on how light SB calls the first raise. Some players will only call in this spot with AA and others are retarded and will call with all sorts of crap that they can fold to a shove.

I don't care for SB's play at all with his hand. If he expects you to squeeze a ton, he's essentially guaranteeing himself a showdown when he could pick up 1200 chips by shoving.

[Velocity]

I really don't like how you or the small blind played it. Once small blind calls the first time, he'll see his stack is about the same as the shorties and just call again with whatever hand he obviously thought was pretty and wanted to see a flop with before. Yes, in 2 hands Shortie will have 1400 while he has 2000 if he folds, but a if a guy doesn't try and reraise shove to try and grab some fold equity, I don't think we can give him enough credit to realize that. So, I think you get called almost all of the time here, and when you do get called, if you lose the hand you're third in chips instead of chiplead.

In small blind's spot I don't see why he didn't shove if he wanted to play the hand, but once he calls and you shove he's getting crazy odds without the much of a chip advantage on fourth so I think his second call is fine.

[suzzer99]

Lol at 300 blinds. Fold or shove for Jarwhalo.

[Velocity]

Okay, so I did some math and now I like your shove. Some anticipated dead money makes a lot more difference than I anticipated, and 78 runs decent in 3 way pots when the dead money isn't there.

[Pudge714]

I don't like it and I think his call with AJ is good. Once he calls preflop he is the basically the short stack there is tons of overlay and he becomes chip leader if he wins. The thing is so many people will just think durrrrrr I have two face cards or I have a pair call. I like it a lot more if shorty is shorter.
Edit: Just thought about it more and realized there is so much overlay that you need like no FE for it be good since it will be +EV if you can get it HU with all this overlay. This is actually really interesting come someone post some math.

[Rek]

Your squeeze here was very aggressive and without having reads on the players I cannot say for certain whether it is right or wrong. With the button raising 3xBB and SB call I think I would have laid your junk down and hoped the 2 players fought to the death and one either bubbled or was left decimated.

If it was a minimum raise and call I would have liked your squeeze better. However, with chip stacks as they were it is not a dreadful attempt to steal and will work a good percentage of the time. And I do think his call with AJ is very loose and hopeful more than confident he has the best of it.

[z32fanatic]

I think I'm basically getting 1.56-1 even if the button calls 100% of the time, meaning I have to win 39% of the time. I bet 87o doesn't win 39% of the time against his range, but that's given him folding literally never. Obviously he will fold some of the time which will make up for the fact that I have 87o. 87s appears to be an insta-shove because it fares so much better against AK/AQ/AJ/AT type hands.

[darinvg]

I'm not a fan. People are just too dumb to fold (you can tell how good he is by his initial flat call). The button and SB's play were horrible. Push/fold for both of them.

[Slim Pickens]

It's really hard to read people's raise/fold fractions, which is what determines the best play here. They seem to be largely random for most players, so I don't see that it makes much difference whether you push or fold there. It's sensitive enough to the ranges that there could be valid arguments either way and there's not a good way to resolve them.

SB would have to put you on a serious case of FPS to make the AJo call correct, and I don't see how the combination of

a) knowing that a call is correct only against a FPS-ing opponent and
b) reading you as such

could possibly exist.