A8o in the BB: Figuring out this Commitment Threshold/Planning thing

[gonores]

It's pretty simple. Villian is playing to win $480 (the ~$360 left in PJ's stack + $120 in the pot). Villian has 8 outs versus 36 non-outs, so he is a 4.5:1 dog, or ~18% to hit on the river. The bare minimum we should be charging him is $480*.18 or like $88. $100 is a fine way to make him make a mistake if he has a bare FD.

However, say he has a a hand like Js9s. The array of spade hands PJ is facing probably has closer to an average of 11 outs as opposed to a flat 8 outs. I think 3:1 is a much fairer assesment of the odds Villian has to win this hand, which means we have to be betting a bare minimum of $120 on the turn for him to make an incorrect call with FD + gutshot. To be on the safe side, especially at Commerce, I'd probably just overbet a little to $140 or $150 and let my opponents deal with that.

OTOH, PJ could always check the turn and hope someone else has a big ace/other betting hand and c/rai. If he had a stack of like $600, that's what I would probably advocate.

There seems to be a mental hurdle on this board when it comes to playing vulnerable hands, especially OOP. Sometimes you have to be content with either winning a small pot or getting it in as a small to medium sized favorite. When dealing with big, vulnerable hands, that's just going to be the nature of the beast.

Edit: didn't see that PJ had only $335 left in his stack. Whatever, the math is still close to the same.