Looking for some thoughts on set-mining OOP

DZgroundhog · #1 10-22-2007, 01:27 PM

I had this scenario come up a handful of times during a live session over the weekend so I figured I'd get some input.

1-2 200max. Assume 200 effective stacks.

1) MP raise to 10, all fold, I'm in BB with 66.
2) MP raise to 12, CO calls, I'm on BTN with 88.
3) UTG raise to 18, MP calls, I'm in BB with 99.

1) I'm letting this one go. I'm not stacking him very often and I could get put in a tricky spot even if I get a nice jack-high flop. Although I guess calling and b/f a dry board without an ace or king is an option but I don't really like it.
2) I call 100% of the time in position. It's easier to build a big pot if I hit and there's a decent chance of stealing if it gets checked to me.
3) I really hate folding something as strong as 99 here, but I just can't see how it's worth calling when I'm playing almost entirely for set value and with an SPR below 3.5.

Are my lines of thought correct in these scenarios?

PokerFun007 · #2 10-22-2007, 01:49 PM

1. I call because the call closes all action. This play is profitable even if we only play sets IMO.

2. Yepper, call.

3. I consider this very opponent specific. It could be fold, call, or even shove depending.

diebitter · #3 10-22-2007, 03:41 PM

1) It's a flip, but if he's aggy then yep

2) Definite call.

3) someone pushing 18 is either itching to get it in or is scared playing AK. The first I call for set value alone - it's at the limit - but anything that even gives a whiff of the second, I fold - too uncertain.

DZgroundhog · #4 10-22-2007, 03:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. I call because the call closes all action. This play is profitable even if we only play sets IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think it's profitable to play mid pairs heads-up OOP just for set value? I thought we're supposed to aim to win 12 times what we're putting in the pot. So if we're putting in $8 out of the small blind, we'll have to win $80 more postflop on average. I don't know if that's possible even if our opponent always c-bets and always stacks off with top pair.

Maybe I'm wrong, though.

five4suited · #5 10-22-2007, 03:58 PM

Unless I'm mistaken, the odds of flopping a set are 7.5 to 1. Perhaps aiming to win 10x accounts for the times you call and fold.

Re the 66 hand in the BB, you can play this profitably against a villain who will c-bet missed overs, against villains who will stack off with an overpair, against villains who will double barrel tptk or tp2k.