Poker After Dark thread (Week of 9/17 - Poker At Its Best)

[tacticaltal]

I didn't understand why Gus had thought he was beat by only two hands. Geeze, Any overpair? 78s? Any Ax/over 8? Seemed what he was trying to say was he had QQ and couldn't beat AA or KK.

[wholarry]

maybe the range he put him on based on limping pre-flop was 22, 78, 8x, 7x, bluff

[pendragon]

Gus' rant was terrific...when Negreanu and Lederer were acting like Tuan made a donk call, I was like "Get the **** out of here." Thank goodness for Gus pointing out the obvious - "I think that was the worst call ever", hah [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Tuan had to call with Kings full there. This is a short-handed game, and Howard could well have read Tuan as weak for whatever reason. There's much more uncertainty here than people are admitting.

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah yeah yeah, discuss the hand all you want. No one on this board, I don't care who you are, is laying that hand down. Period.

Some would call right away, some would think about it hard and then call, some would reraise allin, but NO ONE WILL FOLD. Not 5% of the players here, not 1% of the players here. NO ONE. Case closed.

6 handed tourney, winner takes all, you simply can't wait for the unbeatable nuts to call a raise on the river. Great discipline from Tuan for not raising over the top, but no one is folding. Sorry guys. Hindsight is always 20-20.

[/ QUOTE ]
Quite true. Well I'm sure that someone here would have folded, I don't believe for a second anyone who says they would have.

It's easy to say how obvious Howard having KQ or KJ there was when you can see the hole cards, and see the hand's progress as it evolves. It would not be clear whatsoever if you weren't seeing them from the start of the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't understand why Gus had thought he was beat by only two hands. Geeze, Any overpair? 78s? Any Ax/over 8? Seemed what he was trying to say was he had QQ and couldn't beat AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I didn't really understand this either, and obviously neither did Daniel. My understanding was the same as yours - that he only put Daniel on Aces or Kings in terms of hands that beat him, and every other hand Daniel could have he beats. Which I didn't get his thought process here.

[BigSoonerFan]

The brutal life of the topic poker pros.

"What are you doing this week?"

"Golfing. I got something Wednesday, but just golfing."

"I'm playing Friday. Oh, yeah, playing HSP too."

[BigSoonerFan]

They were talking about the next taping of PAD (I believe) and mentioned trying to make Phil Hellmuth cry. They also mentioned Sam Grizzle playing. They sounded serious?

[PokrLikeItsProse]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't understand why Gus had thought he was beat by only two hands. Geeze, Any overpair? 78s? Any Ax/over 8? Seemed what he was trying to say was he had QQ and couldn't beat AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I didn't really understand this either, and obviously neither did Daniel. My understanding was the same as yours - that he only put Daniel on Aces or Kings in terms of hands that beat him, and every other hand Daniel could have he beats. Which I didn't get his thought process here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming that Daniel would raise preflop with overpairs smaller than AA, be gets a better sense of his opponents' ranges when overcards come, but has been known to trap by limping with AA and maybe KK on the button. I'd also guess that Gus thinks DN plays a flopped set differently (checking and giving a free card, most likely), so he was really only worried about AA and 87, or perhaps AA/KK if he thinks DN would never just open-limp on the button with mid-suited connectors at that point in the match.

Piecing together his comments, that would explain why he was worried about only two hands, since there's no flush draw out there. To Hansen's credit, it seemed like AA was always in his range of hands that he assigned to DN. Showing that ace really decreased the possibility of him calling because now he could rule out a semi-bluff with a hand like T9. maybe DN thought Gus was thinking about it with a hand like TT or 99 and he idea was to get him to think he has A8.

Keep in mind that DN is still a bit ticked about that KJ vs QQ hand. Gus is wondering if DN has something or is making a frustrated stand with a hand like K8 or 98. He could rule out top pair with a backdoor flush or straight draw because he has the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and DN showed him a card which didn't match the suit of any cards on the board and can't make a backdoor sraight.

[Suigin406]

i have no idea how gus made that laydown after seeing the A, only one hand beats him at that moment...sick

[Veil]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah yeah yeah, discuss the hand all you want. No one on this board, I don't care who you are, is laying that hand down. Period.

Some would call right away, some would think about it hard and then call, some would reraise allin, but NO ONE WILL FOLD. Not 5% of the players here, not 1% of the players here. NO ONE. Case closed.

6 handed tourney, winner takes all, you simply can't wait for the unbeatable nuts to call a raise on the river. Great discipline from Tuan for not raising over the top, but no one is folding. Sorry guys. Hindsight is always 20-20.

[/ QUOTE ]
Try not to speak on behalf of everyone in the world please. I must admit, when I first saw the hand I immediately thought it was quite good for Le not to push all-in there. But then I really thought about it and it's actually almost an easy fold if you rule out any A/10. So many here have said that there's no way Lederer would raise with any straight here (even A/10), therefore it's a simple fold. Afterwards, Lederer said that he would in fact not raise with A/10 there. So if we assume we know Lederer's game well (I must admit, I thought A/10 would have been in his range to raise, but maybe not that big of a raise) - and we also assume that there's no way he's not bluffing, then it's an easy fold. We can reasonably assume Lederer isn't bluffing for obvious reasons due to the hand's history but also because it's pretty well known that Tuan Le is one of, if not the, hardest player to bluff ever on the circuit at the moment (jokingly but earnestly so).

One poster has also ruled out 9/9 to raise but I disagree. Let's break the hand down:

1/9, 11.1% (Pocket 9's) = Tuan should push all in,
2/9, 22.2% (K/9) = Tuan should Call,
2/3, 66.6% (K/Q and K/J) = Tuan should fold.

The call represents a significant portion of his stack, 66.6% says I'm beat...simple fold (?) for someone who trusts their in-depth evaluation and would like to be at least a 75% favorite at showdown before calling significant a river bet/raise. Winner take all or not, I don't care - it's about the journey to become winner in this case, and folding is clearly correct according to this analysis.

It's clear Lederer wouldn't raise with any king for obvious reasons but is it clear he can't have Q/Q? Early on in the episode he had been making the obvious re-raises with A/K and Aces and shown them...maybe he was pulling in a meta-game trying to change it up for the table by limping with a big pocket pair utg+1 after Lindgren limped in. I don't really buy it that much though, not someone like Howard, and the chance of it probably doesn't alter the analysis too much because of it being too slight. J/J would not have called the flop bet I can safely say...especially with Mizrachi and Hansen still to act.

If, however you can safely put Lederer on A/10...it's an insta-all-in. In this case you would be around a 75% favorite in the hand based on this new range, and no way is Lederer folding this bet for 7k more if he's raising with the hand to begin with.

[zyrrth]

lol

[Rottersod]

I wish we'd go back to different threads for each day of PAD. I dvr it and don't get to watch until the next evening.

Based on the promo at the end of ep2 it looks like Mizrachi is out. The camera kept shifting between Gus and DN and there seemed to be an empty area to Gus's right. If so then my pick is gone.