Ok spot for a bluff?

[thac]

But how often is he bluffing with air against two people, both of which can have an ace? I just don't think he's gonna have KQ or something here enough times. Don't forget that our setminer button can have 22 still.

[spivey]

I don't like it. He'll probably think "I probably will be checking here with a lot of my range because I want cheep showdown, he'll realize that, and lead with a T to get calls from a wider range of hands".

[chiTown22]

I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

[spivey]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if he folds hands like AJ this is +EV, that's stating the obvious.

[chiTown22]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if he folds hands like AJ this is +EV, that's stating the obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]
The facter that determines the EV on this play is the players abiity to fold an ace not how often he has an ace. I didn't see it mentioned in OP. If that is obvious, my bad.

[Noam Chomsky]

yah, I didn't have a read that strong either way. He seemed to be a pretty good, looser tag so I assumed that if my line was credible he could fold an A.

Basically, I just sort of thought, hmm, if i were him I'd be in a pretty [censored] spot here if I got c/r'd some stack committing amount with AQ.

[Double Eagle]

I think he's calling this with any ace, but will fold quite often on the river if you follow through. If you plan for this going in then you can make the turn raise a little smaller, maybe a little less than 3x, to make the river more of a psb.

[BGnight]

What double eagle said and I think he does call turn a lot but folds river, so I think you should do it only w/ intention of shoving river. This is all only if he's a good player.
It's kinda FPS for sure, but if you like the spot go for it I say. Besides, bluffing is fun.
It sucks if you don't bet river though.

Meh, just don't do this often or at all. Not really necessary. Looks fun though.

[rakes.a.beach]

yeah, i think you'd have to be ready to fire river again

[sightless]

i dont like it, because if he calls you are screwed on the river):