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  #1  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:11 AM
reemas reemas is offline
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Default NL25 - Flopped trips in BB vs Flush

Opponent was loose at about 55/10 over 60 hands

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $11.70
CO: $28.10
BTN: $39.35
SB: $15.60
Hero (BB): $24.90

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, SB calls $0.15, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, SB calls $1

Flop: ($2.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, SB calls $2

Turn: ($8.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.50</font>, Hero calls $1.50

River: ($11.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $9.85 and is All-In</font>, Hero ?

Please evaluate flop and turn. (I normally fold PF, but he limped everytime in the SB at a tight table. Don't need PF comments now that I'm in the hand and flopped trips.)
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  #2  
Old 11-30-2007, 03:47 AM
ckj ckj is offline
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Default Re: NL25 - Flopped trips in BB vs Flush

Raise flop more IMO. The flush draw makes it kind of drawy, maybe make it $5.
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  #3  
Old 11-30-2007, 04:10 AM
existential_dred existential_dred is offline
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Default Re: NL25 - Flopped trips in BB vs Flush

given the flop texture...i would protected my hand with a bigger flop bet giving him horrible odds on a flush draw, even though the looseness of the villian might have still led him to call anyway...but still any heart or another A on the board slows me way down, so I want to at least force this loose player to pay more to see the turn.

Once the turn comes...I think his bet is way too weak. Even if he is trying to value bet/slow play his flush, he would have to be pretty dumb to bet this small. your raise suggests you had at least a pair at the flop. he doesn't even have the nut flush. so he actually gave you the correct odds to call and try to fill up or catch a higher flush. loose players are usually hyper aware of the potential for being drawn out on (because they try to draw out so much) so i just don't see how you don't step on the gas and raise the turn (and your nut flush draw) assuming he is way too weak. SB should have either folded OR been all-in prior to seeing the river.
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  #4  
Old 11-30-2007, 09:43 AM
Lego05 Lego05 is offline
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Default Re: NL25 - Flopped trips in BB vs Flush

Raise a bit more on the flop.

Raise the turn.

As played call the river.
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  #5  
Old 11-30-2007, 11:11 AM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Default Re: NL25 - Flopped trips in BB vs Flush

The main reason to call here is that it's a blind-v-blind situation. A few thoughts:

1. Your preflop raise was a bit on the large side. I'd usually raise to either $0.75 or $1 as my standard preflop raise in a BvB situation. You have virtually the same folding equity but while offering yourself better odds. Alternatively, if you're raising big because you have no folding equity than just check behind -- your hand is technically likely to be better than his, but you're both going to be playing hit-to-win (though you'll have the added advantage of position to let you steal more often).

Given your preflop action, your small flop raise looks VERY much like an ace. Villain calls, rather than raises, but that actually tells us very little: many opponents are reluctant to ever three-bet for fear of losing customers with their made hands, and because semibluffing is just not in their arsenals (especially semibluffing all-in). So, this could have been a small blocking bet attempt for a flush draw, a donkbet with a weak ace or underpair, or an attempt to induce action with a 6. The last situation is the least likely since most players who are willing to induce a raise are going to come back over the top with a three-bet, so that leaves us with "weak hand" or "flush draw."

On the turn, the flush draw got there. Instead of us being ahead of villain's whole range, we're now behind some of it. Given that he's a 55/10 we can't rule out the flush draw simply because we see the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and villain called a raise. This guy could easily think his Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] was worth $1 extra preflop....

This might be a perfect time to make a turn push. If villain has a flush you've still got a whopping 17 outs to a winner. If villain has a 6, you're way ahead and it's better to get the money in now before a scare card destroys your ability to build a pot. If villain has anything else you avoid tough decisions on the river. Your equity is mondo-high right now but your folding equity is still pretty low, and you still dominate the heck out of his range. Better to bet while villain still has hope than to wait for the river.

Note that you never mentioned villain's postflop tendencies. If villain plays tighter or more passively or more loosely or more aggressively postflop that could all change the analysis, here. Reads should always include postflop play, especially if the significant choices are coming postflop.

As played, this river situation sucks. Villain wakes up and pushes, which could be literally anything from AA to A2 to 54 to [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] to 88. It is a big bet, however, and uncharacteristic relative to the rest of the hand. Either villain has been slowplaying or villain caught a miracle card on the river and is hoping to get paid or he's bluffing with a miss.

But what really missed here? I see no legitimate draws that missed.

We're left wondering what villain would consider worth slowplaying and what villain would consider a monster. As wet and scary as the board is, I think even a bad opponent is going to be wary of any hand weaker than trips. In short, I'm having a hard time seeing your hand being best often enough for this to be +EV. Now, if you had seen villain make these big river bets before maybe you'd know better what they mean, but without any extra information I'm afraid I have to walk away from this hand. You had TONS of outs to a winner on the turn but you missed them all, and now you're left with a very good hand that's still likely to be second-best.

Without a postflop read, swear and fold.
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