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  #21  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:30 PM
il_martilo il_martilo is offline
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Default Re: Shocking AK hand, be gentle...

I'm sort of shocked nobody has advocated bet/folding the river? This seems like a much better line to me since we are never good when raised, but plenty of hands would call a bet that would have ordinarily checked behind had we gone for the c/c.

Also, I like the flop donk. Can't let this get checked around.

And make it 3$ PF.
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  #22  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:57 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Location: Using the whole Frist, doc?
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Default Re: Shocking AK hand, be gentle...

[ QUOTE ]

you reasoning imo is way off in this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Always a possiblity. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I'm not trying to tell everybody "this is the truth, believe it or DIE." Rather, I'm suggesting a line I would take considering the atypical preflop situation.

[ QUOTE ]

I havenīt read everythjing the others said but my problem is that you assume that you have villainīs c/r calling range beat which in my experince is not the case!


[/ QUOTE ]

As a general rule I completely agree with you. There are a few other issues to consider, however:

1. The board is VERY drawy. Your CRAI could be easily mistaken for a semibluff draw, which would get you called by weaker kings or weaker pairs looking to "snap off the bluff."

2. If nobody has anything your bet folds the lot of 'em, but your check-raise folds the lot of 'em AFTER they chip in an extra few dozen BBs.

3. Strong draws could easily semibluff this pot behind us hoping to either steal it outright or buy a free card on the turn. Those draws either call the push (giving us lots of extra money) or bet and fold (giving us lots of extra money).

4. Our hand is ridiculously underrepresented at this point: we've smooth-called a preflop bet and then checked with TPTK. Nobody is going to see us coming in advance.

5. We've actually got lots of folding equity on our push, even against hands we really don't want to play against. I would be shocked if AK or better folds, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see strong draws fold.

6. Given the nasty reverse implied odds we're suffering from, getting all the money in on the flop is better than dribbling it all in over the next few streets. If everybody folds I'm quite happy; if people call all-in on the draw I'm also happy.

7. The pot is quite large already: we're talking 1/5th of our stack. With a pot that big we've really got a strong incentive to fight like a tiger for it. A CRAI seems like a better way to take down the pot than a donkbet.

8. With a hand this strong and a pot this big I really don't want to make the huge FTOP mistake of folding the strongest hand. It's going to be VERY hard to find a way to fold if MP bets the flop, turn, and river, and considering how large the pot already is, that means I'm nearly pot committed as things already stand. I might as well make use of whatever folding equity I've got.

9. Checking *might* let me save my stack: if MP bets and someone else makes a huge raise I can consider folding, depending on the specifics.

10. If checkraises get called by tighter ranges than bets, that's not necessarily a bad thing -- after all, the pot is big enough that winning it outright is a good thing. A bet that gets called -- especially in multiple places -- puts us in an excruciating situation on the turn and river, whereas a CRAI eliminates those tough decisions.

[ QUOTE ]

and the way i understood you is that youīre fine with stacking off here b/c the board is very wet. Stacking off here imo is nothing short of aweful.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I'm "fine" with stacking off because the board is very wet. I'm never "fine" with stacking off, because I like stacks. (They give me money.) Rather, I'm saying that the pot is large enough and my hand is strong enough that it's going to be hard to avoid stacking off if I'm behind. The fact that the board is very wet makes it even harder to avoid, since semibluffs are so likely. The big pot is what really makes stacking off difficult to avoid in this situation: had the pot been limped preflop I'd agree that stacking off would be horrendous, but a pot-sized bet and a pot-sized raise is nearly all-in, so there's just not much ability to avoid playing for stacks in this situation. The only way around it is to check/fold this flop, and I think that's a huge mistake under any but the strangest of flop-betting circumstances.
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  #23  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:10 PM
Pokeyisright Pokeyisright is offline
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Default Re: Shocking AK hand, be gentle...

Hi.
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  #24  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:11 PM
NeverScurred NeverScurred is offline
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Default Re: Shocking AK hand, be gentle...

[ QUOTE ]
Hi.

[/ QUOTE ]
A+ gimmick.
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