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  #11  
Old 11-25-2007, 05:17 PM
nazahl nazahl is offline
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Default Re: preflop

was hoping this would generate some more discussion but probably one of those spots that really depends on feel more than anything.

fwiw, I was the sb in this spot and shoved AJo. was wondering what 2+2ers were willing to call off in this spot and generally how bad I'd be getting it in if called.

note to self, do not 4bet orange light.
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  #12  
Old 11-26-2007, 04:13 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Default Re: preflop

[ QUOTE ]

I'd like to see a range against which calling 99-TT are profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]

We're risking $176 to win $224, so we're getting about 1.25-to-1 odds. That means that we only have to win about 45% of the time against his range. Against "AQ+, JJ+" we're winning over 39% of the time. Add in even a tiny chance that he's frustrated and pushing lighter or bluff-pushing and we've got a safely +EV call with 99.

Plus, this isn't a classical steal situation, where villain might smooth-call with drawing hands; this is a blind vs. blind situation where pushing preflop saves all sorts of unpleasant decisions postflop and puts his opponent to a nasty decision preflop where he can make all sorts of FTOP mistakes. Also, most villains are going to be hesitant to four-bet push AA, hoping to get more value out of a call and a flop CRAI.

Still, it's awfully hard to talk myself into calling with 99 here; I think that's why four-betting all-in is such a powerful tool.
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