Two Plus Two Newer Archives Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
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#11
11-23-2007, 04:10 PM
 buttonpusher Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: pushing various buttons Posts: 169
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

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Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:

Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:

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Just because he has a 77% VPIP doesn't mean he's calling PFR with 77%. I'd guess more like 30%. That narrows his range to about half his limping hands.

You're getting 3.5:1 on the call of the c/r. If he only has a pair, and doesn't have an A or K kicker, calling is right, given the odds. On the turn, with 12 outs, getting almost 5:1, you're calling (about 4:1 to hit). Not to mention, he could have QJ.

I guess it depends on how much of his range is made up of naked one pairs vs. pair w/ A or K kicker, or 2-pair or sets. I don't see him bluffing on the flop.

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We are getting 4.5:1 on the flop no?
#12
11-23-2007, 05:01 PM
 Bantam222 Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 748
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:

Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes he is playing 77% of his overall hands but he is most likely playing tighter when facing a raise. If there are 4 limpers and he is in the SB, his range is most likely going to be ATC. If someone pushes all in his range is going to be significantly tighter. If he limps UTG and folds to a raise it will still add to this VPIP.

His range is not that wide in this situation...but still very loose
#13
11-23-2007, 05:14 PM
 DaycareInferno Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: wot u say Posts: 1,286
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

i know this is getting a little bit away from the question, but in this format, i like a 1/2 pot cbet, because people tend to call or raise when they have something, and give up when they have nothing. its still pretty easy to get all of your money in when you have a good hand, too.
#14
11-23-2007, 07:39 PM
 Pokey Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Using the whole Frist, doc? Posts: 3,712
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

This has been an interesting discussion so far.

A few things to clarify before the conversation continues:

1. Several of you have mentioned that he will play tighter against a raise than when limping. This is absolutely true, but this seems to be one of those guys who rarely limp-folds. He's not tightening up to 20% or even close, here. Figure him for calling with roughly half his limping range, maybe more. (Seriously -- that's why I'm at the cap table.)

2. The flop check-raise just says "I have a hand." Don't read unspecified power into the fact that it's a minraise; this guy is positively terrible.

----------

Here are a couple follow-up questions that need to be asked, because people seem to be all over the map on it:

How many outs does hero have on the flop? How many outs does hero have on the turn?

Specify any discounting you do, and why.
#15
11-23-2007, 10:16 PM
 MaltbyStu Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Cary, NC Posts: 611
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

My poker math needs improving so let me take a stab...

I'm going to assume that villain has at best a pair but if we hit an A or K vilain may make two pair. We therefore need to discount some of our 6 outs.

So, let me take 2 of our outs away and say that at best we have 4 outs.

4 outs gives us a 9% chance to hit or ~10/1.
The pot is currently 11.5 + 7 + 14 = 32.5
To call is thus 32.5/7 or ~4.5/1
Seems like a fold to me on the flop?

On the turn our outs have increased since any Q gives a gutter and any diamond gives us the 2nd nut flush. Our outs have now increased to 4 + 4 + 9 = 17 but again we have to assume that several must be discounted. Here I'm taking a real stab in the dark and saying that 10 are good?

10 outs gives us a 22% chance to hit or 3.6/1
The pot is now 39.5 + 11 = 50.5
To call is 50.5/11 or 4.5/1
Look like we could call profitably here.

Where is my math flawed?

edited intial outs logic.
#16
11-24-2007, 12:55 AM
 Genesis Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 805
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

Almost feel like I'm missing something because this hand doesn't seem difficult at all. If we assume opponent has any pair or better on this flop, then we must improve. Our possible outs are 3 Aces, 3 Kings, and ~2 outs total for backdoor flush plus backdoor straight. So max 8 outs. Slightly discount this for reverse domination or better than 1 pair hands, we have somewhere around 6 to 7 outs, call it 6.5.

It is safe to assume that if we call here, our opponent is always putting the last \$11 in on the turn, so our odds are 43.5 to 7 on the flop. If we had 7 clean outs this would be about even/neutral EV, but we probably have a little less, so it's -EV. Now if we could include some bluffs/semibluffs into our opponent's range, a call could have some merit, but otherwise it's a fold.

The turn is one of the best cards we could hope for when calling the flop. Easy call with the odds we're getting.
#17
11-24-2007, 01:33 AM
 buttonpusher Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: pushing various buttons Posts: 169
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
My poker math needs improving so let me take a stab...

I'm going to assume that villain has at best a pair but if we hit an A or K vilain may make two pair. We therefore need to discount some of our 6 outs.

So, let me take 2 of our outs away and say that at best we have 4 outs.

4 outs gives us a 9% chance to hit or ~10/1.
The pot is currently 11.5 + 7 + 14 = 32.5
To call is thus 32.5/7 or ~4.5/1
Seems like a fold to me on the flop?

On the turn our outs have increased since any Q gives a gutter and any diamond gives us the 2nd nut flush. Our outs have now increased to 4 + 4 + 9 = 17 but again we have to assume that several must be discounted. Here I'm taking a real stab in the dark and saying that 10 are good?

10 outs gives us a 22% chance to hit or 3.6/1
The pot is now 39.5 + 11 = 50.5
To call is 50.5/11 or 4.5/1
Look like we could call profitably here.

Where is my math flawed?

edited intial outs logic.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop you failed to count backdoor flush/straight combo's. I think each is worth &lt; 1 out, but together make 1.5 outs or so. I always just count it as 1 out when I play.

I also think discounting 2 outs is a bit much, but thats just my opinion. I don't know much about discounting outs, but 2 seems high.
#18
11-24-2007, 03:09 AM
 bored Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Waiting for a better spot Posts: 645
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

1) I fold if you have a solid read that this is a pair or better. You are getting 32.5:7 which is about 4.5:1. If he stacks off his last 11 even if an OC hits on the turn (which he probably will) you are getting around 6:1, but you are around 8:1 to improve on the turn, assuming villain doesn't have you reverse dominated.

2) You have 17 outs to beat a pair (4 Q, 3 A, 3 K, and the 7 haven't counted yet), and you are getting betting than 4:1. Easy call.
#19
11-26-2007, 11:51 AM
 Pokey Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Using the whole Frist, doc? Posts: 3,712
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

Since this thread seems to have run its course, let me make my own comments to summarize my thinking.

On the flop I think hero has a close but +EV call. We're getting 25-to-7, or 3.5-to-1 odds, with another 11 behind that's likely going in if hero wants it there. If we're drawing to six outs that LOOKS unprofitable, but there are other considerations:

1. Hero has position. Villain might get frightened when we smooth-call the flop check-raise and give us a free card, or try to "slowplay" his top pair. If we get a free card our odds of hitting change from 6.8-to-1 to 3.1-to-1, making this safely profitable.

2. Diamonds could be good (semi-)bluffing cards for us. They're certainly not full outs, but they could easily scare a 1.2-aggro opponent into check/calling or possibly even check/folding. If 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits the board, I can check behind with mondo outs to a winner. Even better, if villain checks when a diamond hits I can make a very profitable push: getting 5-to-1 odds on what becomes a strong draw (14 outs or so) and also having some folding equity. After all, bad villains make bad choices including bad laydowns, and position gives us the information and leverage to let our opponent make a huge FTOP mistake by folding 87s to our turn push. Always be on the lookout for good bluffing opportunities: if you see them coming in advance you can build those "bluff outs" into your EV calculations.

3. Backdoor straights and flushes together count for an extra out or so.

Mostly because of the chance that villain slows down on the turn, I think the flop call is +EV.

As to the turn call, I just got a CRAPLOAD of extra outs: three offsuit queens and eight diamonds (we already had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as an out). With a potential seventeen outs and getting nearly 5-to-1, this has become a very easy call even with some hefty discounting based on the possibility that we're further behind than we thought.
#20
11-26-2007, 12:56 PM
 kaz2107 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Hating CO pro sports atm Posts: 2,943
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

yea that is about the way i see tha hand too. the flop is blah. if u want to call fine but i tend to just dump it becuase it seems i get into awfully ghey spots on the turn or river when i hit top or w/e

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