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  #31  
Old 09-17-2007, 05:27 PM
Disconnected Disconnected is offline
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Default Re: What?

The size of the donk bet worries me somewhat, but I'd be willing to get it in here. I assume an unknown would raise AK, AA, and 99 preflop to punish the limper, and would just as likely checkraise the remaining strong made hands that he would have limp/called (not that an unknown always does it, but that would be my expectation). I would call for a couple reasons: keep the donk behind you in the pot and encourage CO to bet again on the turn with a worse hand.

This is a tough spot, though. Folding has to be a pretty viable option (if not the best option).
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  #32  
Old 09-17-2007, 05:34 PM
Keitan Keitan is offline
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Default Re: What?

I call, hope MP also calls and get it in on a blank turn. Folding here just seems awfully weak.
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  #33  
Old 09-17-2007, 05:46 PM
wslee00 wslee00 is offline
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Default Re: What?

If I have no reads, I let it go this time, but i keep a close watch on him.
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  #34  
Old 09-17-2007, 05:53 PM
Disconnected Disconnected is offline
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Default Re: What?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's what my thought process would probably look like
1) Look at pot/stack ratio and our hand
Ratio is < 5:1, pretty much excellent for a TP2K kind of hand -> We can felt it

2) Look at villains ranges and board texture
Pretty drawy board with two possible gutshots and a FD out there. The As makes the FD unlikely to be to the nuts (I don't think it matters at these levels since flush = nuts)

We don't really know much about the ranges of villains. 64/3 can have close to any two depending on how liberal he calls when his limp was raised (some people never fold once they have invested money etc), note that CO got good odds to call once MP had called so his range should be a little wider
No VPIP/PFR% for the other guy and we don't know if they raise any PP or limp the small ones.
I'm willing to put both of them on
a) Small PPs say 22-66/77
b) Suited connectors of sorts
c) Ax and Axs hands where x < T/J (as they usually should have raised, especially CO)
b) Any two suited cards for some villains
CO is less likely to have Ax or a PP here if he is a good player since he'd probably raise that hoping to pick up blinds+limpers money
Small PPs are least likely for both since most people tend to raise them

Options:
1) Raise the donkbet (minraise + push on turn if called) - my usual line since donkbet = weakish middle pair kind of hands a lot of times (assuming non thinking player). However if I have no other read a pot sized donkbet into a 3 way pot is highly unusual.
The usual weakish ones are between 1/2 and 2/3 the pot

2) Call - I'd do this only to bet if a spade comes on the turn. Big donk bet on 2 flush boards seems to mean "ZOMG I have a hand and don't want to get drawn out on". If you have a read that villain is afraid of flushes hitting and weakish + able to lay a hand down you can go this route.
If the third player calls as well I probably just check/give up on the turn

What beats us:
55 (99 is unlikely as he would have raised PF, 95 is unlikely ubless suited), A5, A9 (AK is unlikely since he would have raised)
What we want villain to have:
A2, A3, A4, A6, A7, A8, AT, AJ
Also possible:
3s2s, 4s3s, 7s6s, 8s7s, 9sXs

note: With a pot to stack ratio of < 5:1 I really don't mind felting this. Once we call we may or may not be commited anyways

[/ QUOTE ]

tl;dr

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to derail the thread, and maybe I'm missing a joke (no surprise), but I disagree....I think the responses like this are awesome, as it shows the thinking that goes into the decision, not just the decision. I wish there were more responses like that one.

/hijack
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  #35  
Old 09-17-2007, 05:58 PM
hennnerz hennnerz is offline
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Default Re: What?

it was tl;dr for me.
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  #36  
Old 09-17-2007, 06:16 PM
Maunzekater Maunzekater is offline
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Default Re: What?

[ QUOTE ]
No reads on villain, but the dude behind me is 64/3/1.4. This one's got me totally stumped.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I just moved up to NL50 and I am a solid, but not very good player. If you, very likely a better player than I am, feels stumped, you should probably fold.

We could talk about WA/WB situtions, ranges, villain's fishy stats and so on.

But basically, you are facing a situation where you are likely playing for stacks - and you don't like this at all.

Fold and bust him later, if nobody is faster.

Just my 2 cents.
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  #37  
Old 09-17-2007, 06:45 PM
absoludicrous absoludicrous is offline
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Default Re: What?

How often do we see Ax for 2 pair?
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  #38  
Old 09-17-2007, 07:15 PM
mvdgaag mvdgaag is offline
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Default Re: What?

Meh... any option will do, but it is very villain dependent. Here's my thoughts.

- If villain donks FD's/combodraws I like a raise.

- If villain donks weaker aces (which are def. in his range) I like a call and reraise turn, but I think a raise isn't too bad, just less value if he folds.

- Naturally if villain mostly has trips/twopair if he donks I'll fold.

Someone with this stats I think I'll raise (and fold to a reraise), because I think there's a lot of weak aces in his range and he'll reraise a lot of the time we're beat. Yes, we lose our raise to find out, but that might be cheaper than most other lines where we're beat already.

If he calls and donks again on the turn I think we're beat most of the time and fold.

So my plan is to check behind or fold the turn and a call or bet the river if checked to.

If I know he will not likely bet again on the turn if he we have him beat I'll call and bet the turn myself if checked to.

BTW: This shows how difficult it is to play against if you donk a little more than your monsters.
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  #39  
Old 09-17-2007, 07:19 PM
mvdgaag mvdgaag is offline
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Default Re: What?

whoops.... misread and stats were on villain. Same goes without a read, I guess. That dude behind you doesn't worry me too much, he's probably calling with worse aces and only making this more profitable.
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  #40  
Old 09-17-2007, 07:35 PM
terp terp is offline
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Default Re: What?

i'd normally raise the flop but i'm happy to keep donkey face behind you in the pot, so i probably call. our equity even against both their hands should be pretty good.

then get it in on most turns.
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