Monoploy: Luck or Skill?

[anacrime]

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wrong forum

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[ScottHoward]

no sweat brother

[LetsHugItOut]

I guess that for any transaction, there is a mathematically correct +EV and -EV decision ... skill only comes in in that most of these decisions are much too difficult for the average person to determine the one correct answer. So, like people have said, it depends on your definitions of "luck" and "skill."

[astroglide]

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people here are overestimating the luck factor. See "The Monopoly Omnibus" by Gyles Brandreth for a detailed explanation on the things involved in Monopoly.

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i haven't read the book, but i have seen misc monopoly analysis sites like THIS. i'll just say that anything can be analyzed in such a way that it appears super deep.

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The standard 4-player is luck to start

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at what point do you believe turn order stops hosing later players? it should get worse with each player that is added.

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followed by great skill in negotiation and development, and acquiring the best portfolio. 2 player is more luck unless the opponent is a crap negotiator.

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what do you mean by development skill and acquisition skills? for the latter, are you talking about auctioning?

i find it interesting that you only mention 2, 4, and 6 players and cite 4p as "standard" since the game supports odd numbers too.

[RikkiDee]

I'm sure I could look this up somewhere but are railroads/utilities +EV? They always seemed like a sucker purchase to me...

[jstnrgrs]

I remember there being a site where you could play online, but I can't find it now. Anyone know where it is?

[astroglide]

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I guess that for any transaction, there is a mathematically correct +EV and -EV decision ... skill only comes in in that most of these decisions are much too difficult for the average person to determine the one correct answer. So, like people have said, it depends on your definitions of "luck" and "skill."

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the answers haven't been "determined" with clever thought, it's a long-term computer-based probability analysis of die rolls. that's not the kind of thing that is calculated on-the-spot.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

There is tons of skill involved in negotiations, if you are good at trading you can improve your winning chances a lot by finding creative tradings with different players. Also a lot of skill knowing which color are worth going for when etc.. However, sometimes there is simply nothing to be done, when I played the final in the Norwegian championship the winner got a full color and a blocking street in all other colors except 2. He was smart enough to never trade, he even rejected to get the best street for the worst (giving me the worst color and him the best) even if I offered a lot of cash on top. Since the color he got is so much cheaper to build on than the 2 he did not block, he got a positive cashflow early and we got a negative one and thus we were chanceless.

As a tip, the mistakes 80% of the players do, is that they try to get one of the expensive colors, the clue is to quickly get one of the cheapest ones, thus their negative cashflow from hitting your buildings will unable them to ever build on the expensive ones. If the game drags out however, due to the constant influx of money, the expensive colors will get most valuable, but between good players the games should never last that long.

[astroglide]

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There is tons of skill involved in negotiations, if you are good at trading you can improve your winning chances a lot by finding creative tradings with different players

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people can buy every property that they can afford to take auctions out of the game, and refuse to trade to take negotiations out of the game. that's quite an equalizer, and i've found it to be more the rule than the exception. you can't force your opponents to wheel and deal, they'll only tend to do so if they believe they have an edge. if they're that confident, how is your skill being imparted upon them?

[anacrime]

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i find it interesting that you only mention 2, 4, and 6 players and cite 4p as "standard" since the game supports odd numbers too.

[/ QUOTE ]I mentioned 2, 4, 6, as examples. It is easier to distiguish a difference b/w 2 and 4 rather than 2 and 3 since the gap is wider.