First hand of a $2.20MTT pp99 Too aggressive?

[erocplayer]

No reads obv, first hand.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
BB (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t60, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t140</font>, Hero calls t80, MP1 calls t80.

Flop: (t430) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t240</font>, MP1 folds, BB calls t240.

Turn: (t910) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1120 (All-In)</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: t-210

My logic was that he wouldn't check an overpair two hands in a row, and even though I may be ahead, I wouldn't want to let an A or broadway card fall and have me lose. Is my line on the turn too aggressive?

[BurnleyMik]

I think i would have been a little more wary considering the 3-bet so early in the tournament by an unknown.

As played, the lead at the flop was fine and considering he only flat called and then checked the turn to you as well the push is fine IMO. You pick up the pot without letting him see a cheap river.

[yNnOs]

Wary, but not that wary; I'm not folding preflop for 80 more. I'd bet more on the flop, you're giving overcards the right price for 240. If you bet the pot and he calls, your shove on the turn looks much better.

[BurnleyMik]

Actually this being a $2.20 the 3-bet doesn't look all that scary. These guys are capable of this with A3 soooooooooooted! [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[erocplayer]

yeah, i kind of figured that if i was up against a big pp, i'd me more likely to be faced w/ a minraise a huge raise preflop and a minbet, a c/r, or a huge bet on the flop.

ppl don't play their big hands so middle-of-the-road in these micro mtt's, in my experience

[Jesuitical]

I don't like this shove. Obviously we can all agree that for the most part you're not getting value out of a worse hand unless he sucks -- you're just trying to pick up the pot now. So there's a certain percentage of the time he has to not have an overpair that calls for this to be profitable, keeping in mind that you're picking up a 900 chip pot if you win and losing a 3000+ chip pot if he calls almost every time. Let's say that percentage is 75-80% of the time for it to be neutral EV against a player with a reasonable 3-betting range. Even if you only think KK and AA would possibly play this way after a 3-bet (and really, I don't know how you'd know this), that's a pretty marginal shove.

Of course, this is a very small tourney and his range could easily be very wide (heck, he might even call worse), but it's important to emphasize that you're really just taking a stab in the dark without a read on Villain. This is obviously not ideal if you consider yourself a winning player who, if the players are really that bad, should have a large edge over a lot of the field in future hands. At least observe his play for a couple of orbits before you start shoving in a spot like this with two nines.

More importantly, I think there's a better way to play the hand fundamentally. If you think it's pretty likely that he's just drawing to six outs, just check behind on the turn. You are ahead of his range at this point, and even given the odds of him drawing out on you (which are somewhat counter-balanced out by the odds he'll bluff at it) it's almost always going to be +EV to call a river bet and possibly even bet the river for a little value if he checks (your line looks somewhat weak, after all, especially to a potentially inexperienced player), or if he bets an ace river really big, to fold. You're losing a smaller pot most of the time if he has a hand and probably winning the same sized pot if he doesn't. It would be pretty sick if he shoved here, but he's played the hand postflop so passively it seems unlikely he'll do so without either making a hand or having a made hand, which would make it a clear fold. If you're really that worried about him bluffing the river after you check behind I guess you can make the same bet on the turn as you did on the flop, suggesting you have a made hand that wants him to stick around, or something like that. I don't know if that's a good play or not.

[BurnleyMik]

I don't agree with this TBH. You make some very good points, but as the villain played the hand there is virtually no way he is ahead of you here, unless he is terrible.

What hand would 3-bet pre flop then only flat call on the flop and check the turn on a raggy board? Only two hands i have him on here.. AK/AQ.

You could check the turn behind, but there is no point allowing him to outdraw you for free, thats simply too passive IMO and any bet is going to commit a lot of your stack so the shove here is fine as the hand played out IMO.

[Jesuitical]

He could definitely play AA and KK this way, intending to wait until the turn to check-raise (hoping you catch something that's not a set or commit yourself to the pot with a second bet) rather than bet out on a raggy flop. If you decide to give him credit here for 3-betting a reasonable range, his range is AA, KK and AK, which still makes a push bad. Of course if you assume he sucks his range is much wider.

One of the points to letting him outdraw you is that you're not playing for your stack with a weak overpair knowing nothing about Villain. Another is that you can re-evaluate on the river. If he never bluffs the river, there's a good chance the pot is checked down, and if he bets the river big you should fold. He probably bluffs the river some of the time because of how weak your line is, so you can call a smaller bet. I think checking behind is +ev and more suited to how you should be playing extremely early in a tournament.

Edit: I did a HORRIBLE job of articulating this the first time I tried -- to anyone who read that version, I'm sorry you had to go through that.

[TheFoxNL]

this is fine IMO
i would always bet near potsize on this turn
wich would leave me with 300-400 left so might aswell shove

[tomek322]

I would have bet 450 n the turn and shoved the river.