A Preemptive Strike

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at the M, one factor to consider is that the M will be reduced by 1 in three hands. Another thing to consider is the time remaining before the blinds increase, and what your M at the next level will be. If the next blind level is either 150/300 or 100/200 ante 25, your new M would be ~4 or ~3, respectively.

All things considered, I like pushing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the [censored]?

I really don't understand why anyone on this forum even bothers posting. Seriously.

TKO, I'm not trying to be an ass to you by quoting your post, however the logic here and in other posts in this thread is way way off.

Look people, OP's question is really simple: "Should I shove all-in?"

Thus far people have given a bunch of "shove" or "fold" answers with a variety of different reasons.

Some say he should fold and "wait for a better spot."

Some say "shove because the blinds are about to hit you."

Some say "1st in vigorish isn't a factor b/c the stacks are big behind you."

These are just a few, there are others in this thread.

My point is that ALL of these answers lack basic logic in their reasoning.

The stacks being "big" behind you have nothing to do with 1st in vigorish. Who gives a [censored] how many chips they have? You have 9 BBs. I don't care if they have 2000 BBs, that doesn't matter. The effective stack you are worried about contains 9 BBs. That's it.

The answer to OP's question is found very very very easily, but it is found by MATH! Not by educated (or uneducated)guesswork. I haven't seen any real MATH done in this thread at all. However, someone did do the math on the Pushbot Charts. And the MATH from the pushbot charts says this is a fold.

Now you can quibble about the calling ranges villains use and re-run the math yourself if you would like. But there is no use in arguing about whether this is a "call" or a "fold" without doing the math.

Now TKO has made a valid point. That you do need to factor in what your M (or how many BBs you will have) will be after the blinds go past you. Sometimes in tournaments you have to take a small -EV spot to avoid a larger -EV spot later, but without knowing the exact situation the OP is in, it is impossible to give that advice (i.e. take the small -EV spot now).

Sigh...

Sherman


Cliff Notes: Do the MATH. Don't just guess at an answer. If you do the math, the answer to OP's question is clearly a fold.

[Win.by.TKo]

[ QUOTE ]
TKO, I'm not trying to be an ass to you by quoting your post, however the logic here and in other posts in this thread is way way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

NP. I don't post this because I'm always right. I post because that is my logic at the time I post. If it's flawed, it usually doesn't take long for somebody to say...oh, I don't know...something like 'What the [censored]?' I am honored you chose my post to point that out.

Also, thanks for the CLIFF NOTES version. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[yNnOs]

Didn't use math to know the answer, but thats because its what I'd normally do. With an M ~ 6 and an EP limper, I need a bit better than ATo. I'd have to have an M ~ 3-4 or less to push in this exact spot. Glad to know folding is mathematically sound. Sometimes I feel like I'm losing by passing up spots similar to this. Thanks to Sherman for simply mentioning Pushbot Charts, because I had no idea these were out there.

[hamnegger]

ok the prob is not just the limper its more so your position . too many players may wake up w a real hand.