In the Money but in the Death Zone

[Frank Zappy]

Late stages PS tourney, 1,200+ started and we're down to 4 tables. Average stack is 56K. Blinds 1/2K ante 200.

We have 15K, so we're solidly in the Death Zone with an M of 3 and Q of oh, 0.3.

The table seems very aware how important it is to ignore the 8th Commandment, you know, the one about "stealing" so very few pots get folded to the blinds.

The most memorable hand I showed down was about from 1/2 hour before when I was in even worse shape pushed from CO with a 54 and doubled up on BB w/ AQ.

Folded to me in MP and I look down at A8, remembering the Book of Dan (HoH) we're willing to push any A and it's folded to BB who calls with 44. The board paired T's on the Turn with all overs to the 4's, the river is a blank so the 4's hold and we suddenly remember that we were supposed to walk the dog 2 hours ago.

The only thing that troubled me was that the Tournament lasted for over 2 more hours. I thought that since I had to double up no matter how deep I was in the Death Zone, is pushing with A8 or similar hands a better strategy than actually waiting for a hand that had a better chance of holding up (big A, suite A, PP >8) especially I have essentially zero Folding Equity?

In one more orbit I'm down to 10K and my M is 2 instead of 3, am I really worse off?

[levAA]

yes you are

even if the blinds rise once again

your M=3 is still about 7BB, so you have some FE left, with M=2 and 5BB this FE goes down dramatically.

A8 is in the top 20% of hands, so if you wait it can easily happen, that you will not find a better hand within the next orbit.

don't second question yourself here - this was a very easy push and you were right doing so.

[Frank Zappy]

Yet my FE is approaching Absolute Zero, so while my need to double up remains, the odds of my picking up the blinds and antes by a shove are negligible since my stack is a rounding error to the table.

Lets say I go 2 orbits and I'm in MP and down to 7K and I pick up a big A or PP, or one of my favorite Death Zone hands to call or RR with 98s, T9s or JTs and UTG has raised 3BB, isn't this a better place to try to double or triple up instead of pushing nearly non-existent FE? I'm not waiting for AA, but instead waiting for a better chance to double up rather than overvaluing my FE.

So, which would be preferable in MP: folded to me and push A8, or UTG raises 3BB we have 98s and we push?

I ask because the hand before I passed up an opportunity to push over an EP raise with a JTs. My instinct was to push, irrespective of the recommendation in HoH, but I passed thinking I still had FE and should wait for a better chance.

Looking over the numbers now, I think I overestimated the FE.

[udbrky]

Just because your chances of pushing this through uncontested are small doesn't make pushing -EV. You have 7 BB, with blinds and antes, there's what? 2.5 out there? So if you get called, you're risking 7 to win 9.5, you just need to win this 43% of the time.

If he's calling wide - as he should be - here's a range I assigned:

22+,A2s+,K5s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,A2o+,K8o+,QTo+,JTo

You're 49% against this range. So, even without adding in fold equity, you have way more pot equity than you need to push. This is a fall out of your seat getting to the push button move. As it played out, you got 1.5:1 on a coin flip. Take it any day of the week, and twice on sundays.

[Frank Zappy]

Solid, spot on analysis.

How would JTs hold up against the same range assuming that the pot was 5.5, I push for 7 and get at least one caller with the same range?

[udbrky]

JTs would be 42%. Suited connectors are cute and all, but better deep stacked. All-in pre-flop, you want hands that will win races. i.e. two big cards, or a pair.

I think this will help you more than anything else:

http://www.pokerstove.com/

[21times20]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets say I go 2 orbits and I'm in MP and down to 7K and I pick up a big A or PP, or one of my favorite Death Zone hands to call or RR with 98s, T9s or JTs and UTG has raised 3BB, isn't this a better place to try to double or triple up instead of pushing nearly non-existent FE?

[/ QUOTE ]

so you think waiting for a better hand so you can double up to 14-15k might possibly be better than pushing and trying to pick up chips/double up when you already do have 15k?

[Frank Zappy]

[/ QUOTE ]so you think waiting for a better hand so you can double up to 14-15k might possibly be better than pushing and trying to pick up chips/double up when you already do have 15k?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, look at it this way.

In the A8 example I'm 49% to win 9.5 (4.6) and the hand before, I was 42% to win 16.5 (6.9), so isn't it better to take slightly worse to win bigger?

[Ruy Lopez]

Hand 0: 49.573% { A8o }
Hand 1: 50.427% { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A2o+, K8o+, QTo+, JTo }

---

Hand 0: 42.429% { JTs }
Hand 1: 57.571% { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A2o+, K8o+, QTo+, JTo }

Your equity isn't as good with JTs, but, if I understand your question, your pot equity is way better. 7 to win 12.5? That must be about 1.8 to 1 or ~36%. You're +9% in the first case, and +6.5% in the second. Feel free to correct my maths...

[Win.by.TKo]

In HOH2 p141 it gives qualifications for his '3-to-1' rule. What you mention above meets all his qualifications for a +EV push.