2/4 mid pair

[Bob T.]

This is a tricky situation. If your opponent was more aggressive, there would be a good reason to check behind. He might checkraise semibluff, and put you to a decision. That same opponent would be more likely to bluff a missed river, so by checking behind, you probably win one bet, and don't risk losing the pot.

With a slightly passive opponent (with limited hands, I know but it is all we have to go on) I think I like betting the turn, and checking behind on the river.

[tsrcess]

oh, the endless angst over 7,7-8,8 or 9,9. you know, i have come to believe the correct play of these middle pair is related to the willingness of the holder to fold. since folding (when beat) is so important, i think the good folder HAS to play these hands mostly for set value and top or second pair in the right situation. as played, i think the correct play is to bet the turn & fold to a c/r not at all happily....

[popesc]

Here is something interesting from pokerstove. I put villian on a range for this situation, pockets 22-99, suited club connectors down to 56, any two broadway excluding AK and AQ (those would raise preflop).

Here are the results:

6,028 games 0.005 secs 1,205,600 games/sec

Board: Kh Kc 6c Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.8102 % 47.43% 00.38% { 8d8s }
Hand 2: 52.1898 % 51.81% 00.38% { 99-22, AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

Villian actually has a pot equity edge with this range. If this range is reasonable, we are actually losing money when we bet and get called.

[James.]

99-55,A9s-A2s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,KJo+

[popesc]

How scary must the board be to get away from the standard line?

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
How scary must the board be to get away from the standard line?

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less a function of just the board and more of your opponent and his hand range.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
How scary must the board be to get away from the standard line?

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you bet the turn b/c with such a susceptible pair you cannot afford to give a free card, especially since your opponent's range consists of so many drawing hands that will pay to continue. that is why betting the turn and checking the river will win the most/lose the least b/c you charge the draws and don't pay them off when they do hit. of course, a busted draw isn't typically going to call unless it backed into a pair or something.

now if you are playing SH or HU, or even fullring in a HU pot and the opponent is very aggro(i.e. can semibluff raise you with a draw on the turn and induce you to fold a better hand) there is more merit to checking the turn and calling a river bet b/c he will be trying to steal the pot so often. the smaller the pair and more drawy the board the less attractive it is b/c more free cards can hurt you. against this opponent you bet the turn, if he raises you fold, if he calls you check behind on the river usually. of course the pot size plays a factor as well.

[dcssullivan]

One thing I get caught in in looking at stats....

You say he's 26/5/1, the 1 being a factor of (bet+raise/call) correct? The way I read the aggro factor is that..... A seemingly typical move on a flop like this if somebody's hit trips is to call the flop planning to c/r the turn. This still equals out to a factor of one as you've got one raise divided by one call.

So, occassionally, I will check behind on this turn, foiling his slowplay of trips which so many are apt to do at this limit.

I'm not saying check behind all the time... but the pot is small enough right now that you don't need to put up a huge fight for it. To Quote Ed Miller:
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The time to save bets is when the pot is small.


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[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I get caught in in looking at stats....

You say he's 26/5/1, the 1 being a factor of (bet+raise/call) correct? The way I read the aggro factor is that..... A seemingly typical move on a flop like this if somebody's hit trips is to call the flop planning to c/r the turn. This still equals out to a factor of one as you've got one raise divided by one call.

So, occassionally, I will check behind on this turn, foiling his slowplay of trips which so many are apt to do at this limit.

I'm not saying check behind all the time... but the pot is small enough right now that you don't need to put up a huge fight for it. To Quote Ed Miller:
[ QUOTE ]

The time to save bets is when the pot is small.


[/ QUOTE ]

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you are thinking he has hit a set? do you know how rare sets are? you have to think of this situation differently. don't be afraid of being against a monster, i would rather be up against a set with 88 than KK b/c it is psychologically easier to get away from 88. we have a hand of marginal value and we want to maximize that value as best we can. this means that, rather than giving our opponent a free card which gives them infinite odds to draw against our hand which is often best, it charges them to draw by making an incorrect call(depending on the draw vs. the pot size) or if it is a correct call, we extract value from them as they draw by getting money in when we have the best of it. don't be afraid of value, it is your friend.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I get caught in in looking at stats....

You say he's 26/5/1, the 1 being a factor of (bet+raise/call) correct? The way I read the aggro factor is that..... A seemingly typical move on a flop like this if somebody's hit trips is to call the flop planning to c/r the turn. This still equals out to a factor of one as you've got one raise divided by one call.

So, occassionally, I will check behind on this turn, foiling his slowplay of trips which so many are apt to do at this limit.

I'm not saying check behind all the time... but the pot is small enough right now that you don't need to put up a huge fight for it. To Quote Ed Miller:
[ QUOTE ]

The time to save bets is when the pot is small.


[/ QUOTE ]

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If you check the turn through, are you calling most rivers?

-McGee