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#11
10-04-2007, 11:16 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
Turn (STILL 5 handed, 12 BB): T BB checks, UTG checks, Villain donks (???), HJ folds (!), Hero raises, BB and UTG fold, Villain calls Thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] Why not, you have a redraw with top pair. Even if you aren't best you have potential to be. Good raise. [ QUOTE ] River (Heads up, 16 BB): Q Villain bets, Hero... [/ QUOTE ] You CANNOT FOLD here. You can only lose money if you raise. What's the issue? Call. 
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#12
10-04-2007, 11:17 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
You CANNOT FOLD here. You can only lose money if you raise. What's the issue? Call. [/ QUOTE ] your hand is as good as 22 here. you calling with that too? you sound like those newbs in micros who are incapable of folding Queen high because "the pot is so big"
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#13
10-04-2007, 11:33 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
I defer to the people who obviously know more than me. Will never post again.
Good luck.
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#14
10-04-2007, 11:39 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
You have second highest pair on the board and going to fold for one more river bet. NO wonder my win rate is so high in microlimits. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Canterbury Park 6/12 full game [/ QUOTE ] what part of this did you not understand? this is a live game not micro limit online poker. if you dont play live dont comment on this hand as you dont have the experience to do so. live poker is not online poker, and a big pot is not a justification for making a stupid call. your "second pair" is equivalent to bottom pair in this spot as a live opponent would never bet a hand you beat after you've shown this much strength.
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#15
10-04-2007, 11:56 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
I defer to the people who obviously know more than me. Will never post again. Good luck. [/ QUOTE ] i apologize for sounding harsh. i just found a microlimits win rate to be irrelevant to a live 6/12 game situation. in 0.02/0.04, this might be a call. in a live game it isnt.
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#16
10-05-2007, 02:22 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
Kit, while we are very unlikely to be good here, I still call getting 17:1. We only need to be good 6% of the time. I think the average Villain will bluff 1:20 times. Even solid players get out of line or take a shot sometimes. In your defense a badly played (on the turn) AhKh or 9Ts (does villain sometimes raise a little light preflop?) are the only reasonable hands he could play this way that we beat. Of course he could be taking a shot because he knows that you and others respect his post flop play as well. If the pot was smaller I would muck it, but in this huge pot I'd call one more bet.
That being said, I know that the Park is not as wild as So-Cal games, so this may be my regional-based thinking kicking in again. It's very possible that this is a fold at Canterbury, but a call in So Cal.
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#17
10-05-2007, 02:26 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
He'll limp light in EP sometimes but if he's raising, as he is here, he'll always have something. His range in that spot is TT+, AK, AQ, IMO. [/ QUOTE ] That's from the original post, to answer your question about raising light. He doesn't raise light from EP. I have seen him raise a little light from late position with suited connector type hands and medium suited aces but he only does it after a bunch of limpers. This is influencing my decision. He may show me AhKh very, very rarely here but that is all that he would show me that I beat. Other than that I'm inclined to believe he has at least JJ.
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#18
10-05-2007, 02:35 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
I'll buy that. As I've said in other posts, So Cal players tend to be crazy enough that I wouldn't give anyone 94% or better credit for a hand in this spot - except for old white nits.
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#20
10-05-2007, 08:04 PM
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Re: JhTh on button, raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] He'll limp light in EP sometimes but if he's raising, as he is here, he'll always have something. His range in that spot is TT+, AK, AQ, IMO. [/ QUOTE ] That's from the original post, to answer your question about raising light. He doesn't raise light from EP. I have seen him raise a little light from late position with suited connector type hands and medium suited aces but he only does it after a bunch of limpers. This is influencing my decision. He may show me AhKh very, very rarely here but that is all that he would show me that I beat. Other than that I'm inclined to believe he has at least JJ. [/ QUOTE ] Like I said before, you're relying on a read of TT-AA, and AK, maybe AQ. If your read is EXACT on his range then you could POSSIBLY fold but you have to be 100% sure that is his range. Is it possible he's pushing AK, or AKs, sure....some of the time...maybe only a few percent of the time even. If your error rate on his opening hand range is 3-4%, which is the standard error rate used in a lot of statistical data, you can see how calling is more profitable than giving it up. Has this player seen you lay down big pots before? If so you should be even more inclined to call. I don't see how this is bad logic, especially if he thinks you are drawing to hearts and has a low pair. If that possibility is even remote, you HAVE to call. Read Ed Miller's Book on Small Stakes. If you have it REREAD IT on large vs small pots, p. 145 and especially the last line on p. 151. I've made these "big laydowns" before and found them to be terrible mistakes. But you know what, even if I'm wrong MOST of the time I still come out ahead. It is only when I'm wrong all the time that I truly lose. This hand here has a possiblity of being best. Maybe not a great possibility, but enough to make this a call everytime.
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