NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in

Jurrr · #1 07-23-2007, 01:20 AM

6-handed. Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and $200. BTN is 37/11/2.2 over 54 hands and covers, probably a donk.

Hero raises to $7, BTN calls.

Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($17).

Hero bets $14, BTN calls.

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($45).

Hero bets $45, BTN calls.

River 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($135).

Hero shoves for $134...?

This is because I don't feel like folding on the river as I think he will bet AT/A5/AJ/A7/55/AK/AQ often enough and to avoid a negative freeroll where I'm mostly playing a big pot when beat but he checks behind when he has a weaker ace.

Looks good or did I get it wrong?

_TKO_ · #2 07-23-2007, 01:32 AM

He probably doesn't have a flush. I can't follow the reasoning you stated for shoving.

Jurrr · #3 07-23-2007, 01:33 AM

The reasoning is that if I don't shove river he checks behind many hands I beat that were calling a shove but bets many hands that beat me and I'm not folding.

BobOjedaFan · #4 07-23-2007, 01:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He probably doesn't have a flush. I can't follow the reasoning you stated for shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thought it was just me. I like the shove though, wide range of hands that can call but alot of them wont raise a regular bet or even bet after a check, if he has the flush oh well, not worth missing the value on river.

_TKO_ · #5 07-23-2007, 01:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning is that if I don't shove river he checks behind many hands I beat that were calling a shove but bets many hands that beat me and I'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I thought so. It sounded like you were saying he would bet many hands that you beat. I like the shove.

DonovanMD · #6 07-23-2007, 02:05 AM

How much does the villains VPIP affect the +EV of the river shove?

Pat Southern · #7 07-23-2007, 02:08 AM

I dont shove this river because I feel that the frequency of him calling a bet of $90 is so much bigger than his frequency for calling a push, that betting less than a push is optimal. Am I missing value?

_TKO_ · #8 07-23-2007, 02:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How much does the villains VPIP affect the +EV of the river shove?

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VPIP matters most on the flop and least on the river, so probably not much. Consider that a villain with like 80 VPIP has a range wider than just flushes+AA, and villain with a lower VPIP has a range weighted towards non-flush hands. I think the EV of the river shove is more dependent on AF than VPIP.

beachbum · #9 07-23-2007, 02:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning is that if I don't shove river he checks behind many hands I beat that were calling a shove but bets many hands that beat me and I'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is he possibly calling with that you beat? AJ? Isn't this a perfect spot to induce a bluff (turning his Ax into a bluff)? Also, how awful is a fold? So many draws have gotten there.

Jurrr · #10 07-23-2007, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What is he possibly calling with that you beat?

[/ QUOTE ]My read is that the entirety of AT/A5/AJ/A7/55 calls in nearly 100% of cases and AK/AQ calls a lot of the time and even Ax one pair calls some of the time.