AA rr pot, flop donked

smellmuth · #1 11-29-2006, 10:44 PM

villain is probably 30-24ish on this table and aggro postflop, has won several large pots without showdown and can be tricky, has several gears. hes definitely a thinking opponent. UTG seems very straightforward and tight, having made some big laydowns in large pots against villain.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($702.80)
Hero ($225.90)
SB ($178)
BB ($199.85)
UTG ($188.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $8, MP calls $8, Hero raises to $36, 2 folds, UTG calls $28, MP calls $28.

Flop: ($111) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets $52, Hero?


ps i am villain

dd323 · #2 11-29-2006, 10:46 PM

how wide is your three-betting range?

Requin · #3 11-29-2006, 10:47 PM

Call, get it in if HU on turn

smellmuth · #4 11-29-2006, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how wide is your three-betting range?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am 20-15 at this table, so not very wide, but villain has been raising a ton of pots so ive threebet him a few times with hands that did not get shown down. i would still say my range is perceived as narrow (likely AK, TT+)

smellmuth · #5 11-29-2006, 10:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call, get it in if HU on turn

[/ QUOTE ]

no matter what card falls? this seems short-sighted. what do we do if T hits the turn? J? Q?

Requin · #6 11-29-2006, 10:52 PM

I don't want to run through every possibility and betting sequence. Probably fold if he bets a ten or Q.

smellmuth · #7 11-29-2006, 10:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to run through every possibility and betting sequence. Probably fold if he bets a ten or Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

im really curious as to what you put villain on, i guess. thats my real question.

NewTeaBag · #8 11-29-2006, 10:58 PM

I think the range of his hands is so wide here that almost always you are ahead. AJ, A10, J10s are far more likely candidates for this action than a set.

With $163 in the pot after his bet, I don't see how you can call then release on later streets. Bearing that in mind, I'd go with thr RRAI.

My primary concern would be the UTG checker. He could easily have checked a set, but I don't see how you can call and let UTG slip in the backdor for cheap when so many turns are going to look ugly in a multiway RRd pot.

If UTG has ya he has ya. But if he doesn't, they BOTH have to pay full freight to carry on in this hand.

carrotsnake · #9 11-29-2006, 10:58 PM

smell, it so depends on what player it is, and you know I don't fold ... but I fold here fwiw.

(and if your truly villian, and you have a hand that beats AA, this is horrible, if you have a hand that doesn't beat AA, it really, really depends on who the true villian is). Generally speaking though, screwing around in multi-way 3 bet pots is baaaaaaad, mmkay.

dd323 · #10 11-29-2006, 11:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to run through every possibility and betting sequence. Probably fold if he bets a ten or Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

im really curious as to what you put villain on, i guess. thats my real question.

[/ QUOTE ]

88,99,JT,9T,89,TT (I don't think JJ because with his stats I think he always re-pops JJ preflop, TT not sure so I included it). He would have to be pretty bad to call with AT or AJ in this situation. In a three-way pot, I doubt hes messing around too much here.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.6611 % 42.37% 01.29% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 56.3389 % 55.05% 01.29% { TT-88, JTs, T9s, 98s, JTo, T9o, 98o }

With the current pot-size you just barely have the odds to push here but barely. I think its just about EV neutral to fold or push (assuming he is calling your pushes with his entire range).