Tilty bluff - this is horrible isn't it

djshawk · #1 10-10-2007, 02:42 PM

Villian is 35/6, I've not been at the table more than 20 hands. Image is probably tight if anybody is even paying attention.

I'd not flopped a set in my last 100 tries and it was starting to bug me, I nearly logged off but found this table so stayed on a bit longer (mistake No 1!). When the flop came down I decided to have a go at the pot, villian has a fold to flop bet of about 70 and fold to turn of about 80.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $108.44
UTG+1: $113.48
CO: $186.03
Button: $48.50
SB: $71.00
Hero: $98.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG raises to $4, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($12, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($30, 2 players)
Hero bets $21, UTG raises to $46.5, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $25.5 returned to UTG.

Results:
Final pot: $72

This now looks really terrible, I dont think it's a great flop to bluff at, too many big cards. I don't know if this is just me being results oriented though, is this really terrible?

MasterLJ · #2 10-10-2007, 02:47 PM

It's a pretty poor flop to cbet at, but it's not a terrible turn to double barrell given that you did cbet flop.

djshawk · #3 10-10-2007, 02:51 PM

yeah problem is the flop bet was a donk [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Student Caine · #4 10-10-2007, 02:56 PM

One thing that we need to think about in these situations though, is what does that "fold to flop bet" number really mean, i.e., what is it based on? It encompasses all times that villain folded to a flop bet. But it does not differentiate for us whether he folds to donk flop bets or flop bets when he open limps (which, judging from his stats he does quite often). So , given that his raising range is tight, and he has raised from UTG, he is probably sitting on a decent hand here.

Maybe a better line for us to take here would be to check his cbet %, and if it is high plan for a c/r? I don't know how great this is, but if he has some outrageous cbet % (like me, mine is usually 80%-90%) then he is more likely to cbet air and might fold to the aggression that we show with a c/r. Of course, the two problems with this are:

1. He is probably less likely to cbet into 2 opponents
2. If he flat calls our raise we are screwed, as the pot is now huge and if we don't lead the Turn we may get played back at and not really know where we are.

So even looking at the c/r line it doesn't seem like a real great spot. I dunno'... c/f >>donk bet>c/r?

Yeah, all in all, this probably was a good spot to try and play for set value and that is about it.

donkeykong2 · #5 10-10-2007, 03:03 PM

yeah, pretty horrible.

sww · #6 10-10-2007, 03:08 PM

c/f > c/c ~= c/r >> b/f [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] People don't respect donkbets and this flop sucks too, he is hitting it often + it's multiway. You fold out only worse hands and quite often they even raise you off the pot.

phantom_lord · #7 10-10-2007, 07:26 PM

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yeah, pretty horrible.

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