Late chip leader confrontation

thegreatchris · #1 02-15-2007, 09:58 AM

$60 live tourney, 2 tables remain, 16 players left, tournament pays 9.

Villain is the chip leader with 100,000 chips two seats to my right. Player was just moved to table two orbits ago, has raised three pots and taken all down either preflop or c-betting the flop.

Table has been extremely tight since merging at 18, with most players clearly trying to fold into money.

Hero has 50,000 and has maintained a tight image, average stack is around 30,000. I have only shown down a few hands in three hours, all either the nuts or close to it. I have been raising two hands an orbit stealing blinds easily.

Blinds are 2,000-4,000.

Villain limps UTG+1 (4,000), UTG+2 folds.

Hero looks at A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Reading the limp as weakness, Hero raises to 16,000.

Table folds to Villain, who pauses for five seconds, contemplates, and calls.

Flop is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

After approx. three seconds, Villain moves all in (84,000), effectively for all of my chips.

Villain is very talkative, asking after a few seconds if i have a pair. After I ask whether he wants a call, responds that he'd be happy to take my chips.

Reading this as weakness since most players state the opposite of what they really want, I call.

Is my preflop raise bad?
What is villain's range here?
Any thoughts on the live tells?

shaundeeb · #2 02-15-2007, 10:03 AM

if there are antees I shove over his limp.

As played you should be instacalling that flop.

thegreatchris · #3 02-15-2007, 10:09 AM

Side note: no antes.

shaundeeb · #4 02-15-2007, 10:17 AM

with no antee just fold, you can wait for a better spot to resteal for him as your stack is big enough for him to fold after opening esp live.

Dazza1984 · #5 02-15-2007, 10:19 AM

I'd call. Im worried about 66 and 77 though. Still think your ahead though

johnnyrocket · #6 02-15-2007, 10:20 AM

if he stole alot most players try limping huge at the end to trap the stealers. This seems like he set you up to me, i fold here.

johnnyrocket · #7 02-15-2007, 10:20 AM

yea, if he is raising alot fold here then repop him later for easy chips

shaundeeb · #8 02-15-2007, 10:21 AM

guys if he was limping to trap he either sticks it in PF or checks the flop.

thegreatchris · #9 02-15-2007, 05:51 PM

I kinda felt the same way as shaun here on the flop. My bigger question is whether its correct to raise, knowing that the table will not play back at me without a premium hand. If I raise to 16k and an average stack moves in for 30k or so, is it reasonable to almost instamuck knowing I'm dominated despite 2:1 odds?

Dromar · #10 02-15-2007, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I kinda felt the same way as shaun here on the flop. My bigger question is whether its correct to raise, knowing that the table will not play back at me without a premium hand. If I raise to 16k and an average stack moves in for 30k or so, is it reasonable to almost instamuck knowing I'm dominated despite 2:1 odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't think that's very reasonable.

You MIGHT be dominated, you don't know you are. And you're getting 3:1 (14k more to call right?) You'd only have to win about 14/60 times just to break even. It would suck if you got crippled so near the bubble, costing yourself the ability to steal blinds, but I think you're just getting too much of an overlay. Unless he's got AA, you're 3:1 at worst. Of course, if you choose to pass up the great odds and fold, you'll be semi-crippled anyway with 34k, which is definite push/fold territory. So you really don't gain a whole lot by folding, but you stand to gain quite a bit if you call.

FWIW, I'm probably calling villain on the flop if I ever get into that situation.